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RCPs 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 큰망초 (Conyza sumatrensis)의 적합 서식지 분포 예측 KCI 등재

Predicting the suitable habitat distribution of Conyza sumatrensis under RCP scenarios

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  • URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/413637
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한국환경생물학회 (Korean Society Of Environmental Biology)
초록

Global warming has a major impact on the Earth’s precipitation and temperature fluctuations, and significantly affects the habitats and biodiversity of many species. Although the number of alien plants newly introduced in South Korea has recently increased due to the increasing frequency of international exchanges and climate change, studies on how climate change affects the distribution of these alien plants are lacking. This study predicts changes in the distribution of suitable habitats according to RCPs climate change scenarios using the current distribution of the invasive alien plant Conyza sumatrensis and bioclimatic variables. C. sumatrensis has a limited distribution in the southern part of South Korea. Isothermality (bio03), the max temperature of the warmest month (bio05), and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio09) were found to influence the distribution of C. sumatrensis. In the future, the suitable habitat for C. sumatrensis is projected to increase under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Changes in the distribution of alien plants can have a significant impact on the survival of native plants and cause ecosystem disturbance. Therefore, studies on changing distribution of invasive species according to climate change scenarios can provide useful information required to plan conservation strategies and restoration plans for various ecosystems.

목차
Abstract
서 론
재료 및 방법
    1. 종 출현 자료
    2. 생물기후변수
    3. 최적모델 선정
    4. 종 분포 예측 모델
결과 및 고찰
    1. 환경변수와 최적 모델 선정
    2. 모델 평가
    3. 분포 적합지 예측
적 요
사 사
REFERENCES
저자
  • 김명현(국립농업과학원 기 후변화평가과) | Myung-Hyun Kim (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Wanju 55365, Republic of Korea)
  • 최순군(국립농업과학원 기 후변화평가과) | Soon-Kun Choi (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Wanju 55365, Republic of Korea)
  • 조재필(㈜유역통합관리연구원) | Jaepil Cho (Watershed Management Institute, Seoul 04540, Republic of Korea)
  • 김민경(국립농업과학원 기 후변화평가과) | Min-Kyeong Kim (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Wanju 55365, Republic of Korea)
  • 어진우(국립농업과학원 기 후변화평가과) | Jinu Eo (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Wanju 55365, Republic of Korea)
  • 엽소진(국립농업과학원 기 후변화평가과) | So-Jin Yeob (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Wanju 55365, Republic of Korea)
  • 방정환(국립농업과학원 기 후변화평가과) | Jeong Hwan Bang (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Wanju 55365, Republic of Korea) Corresponding author