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Direction Of Trade Of Major Agricultural Commodities From India
pp.36-49
This study pertains to direction of exports direction of major agricultural commodities viz., rice, maize, bengal gram, chillies and cotton from India. In the ensuing next decade during 21st century, India is likely to witness changes in the export pattern of these commodities due to both internal and external constraints. One of the major internal constraints is mounting cost of production. Similarly, one of the most important external constraints include excessive subsidization by importing countries that makes Indian commodities less competitive in the international market. So, the important research question is to analyse the direction of exports of major agricultural commodities from India during post-WTO regime. The dynamic nature of trade pattern of the selected commodities was analyzed by employing the first order Markov process by examining gains and losses in respect of export shares of major Indian agricultural commodities to different countries. During the post-WTO regime, it was found that Saudi Arabia for rice, Bangladesh for maize, Pakistan for bengal gram, Malaysia for (dry) chillies, China, mainland for cotton are the loyal destinations for the commodities. The increasing demand for the selected commodities in countries like Saudi Arabia, Côte d'Ivoire for rice; Malaysia for maize; Pakistan and Algeria for Bengal gram; USA and Sri Lanka for (dry) chillies and Vietnam, Pakistan and Indonesia for cotton need to be explored for augmenting the exports. In order to achieve this goal, it is essential that consumer preferences in newer markets, market intelligence and impediments for augmenting exports need to be researched. It is also high time to analyze the export competitiveness of selected commodities across these importing countries.
1. Introduction
2. Review of Literature
Methodology
Markov Chain Analysis
3. Results and Discussion
Maize
Bengal gram
Chillies
Cotton
4. Summary and Conclusions
Reference
