논문 상세보기
pp.167-183
PURPOSES : This study analyzes the estimated traffic volumes on roads and railways based on econometrics. METHODS : The accuracy of traffic forecasting was analyzed based on the average difference between predicted and actual values. This study distinguishes itself from existing literature by conducting a comparative analysis categorized by project type. In this study, econometric analyses, including bias and efficiency evaluation, were conducted for 308 projects in Korea. RESULTS : We conducted econometric analysis by dividing the data into project types. This study examines the accuracy of estimates in South Korea's road and railway projects concerning various factors, including project types (mobility-focused or accessibility-focused), implementing agencies, and the performance of preliminary feasibility studies. Notably, it identifies a tendency for overestimation, particularly in railway projects and mobility-focused road projects, such as expressways and national highways, as well as in projects executed by local governments. The mean percentage error (MPE) for the analyzed projects was -46.62%, indicating a significant overestimation bias with resulting inefficiencies. However, our analysis revealed that road projects, particularly those accompanied by preliminary feasibility studies and implemented by the central government, exhibited reduced bias and improved efficiency. The presence or absence of preliminary feasibility studies significantly influenced estimation bias. Interestingly, even when preliminary feasibility studies are conducted, the choice of the implementing agency remains a crucial factor affecting estimation bias. In addition, railway projects continue to demonstrate a notable overestimation bias, warranting further attention. CONCLUSIONS : Considering bias, efficiency, and MPE is advisable when forecasting traffic.
2. 기존문헌 검토
3. 분석자료 개요
3.1. 분석자료
3.2. 유형구분
4. 분석방법
4.1. 교통수요 추정의 정확성
4.2. 교통수요추정 편의와 효율성
4.3. 교통수요 추정의 편의와 효율성 평가 방법
5. 분석결과
5.1. 추정결과의 정확도
5.2. 추정 편의 분석결과
5.3. 추정 효율성 분석결과
5.4. 분석결과의 시사점 및 의의
6. 결론 및 한계점
