논문 상세보기
pp.240-249
Climate change significantly impacts biodiversity, particularly for endemic species in restricted habitats. This study focuses on the Korean fir (Abies koreana), an alpine conifer species in South Korea, to evaluate potential habitat changes under SSP climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5- 8.5). Using high-resolution ensemble climate data from the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and integrating 10 species distribution models (SDMs) into an ensemble model, we predicted habitat suitability for the period 2010~2090. The species data was refined and constructed with a focus on location data so that it could be used in this model, using the National Ecosystem Survey, Baekdudaegan Conservation Area Survey of the National Institute of Ecology, and the National Park Natural Resources DB of National Park Service. The results identified BIO1 (mean annual temperature) and BIO13 (Precipitation of Wettest Month) as the most influential bioclimatic variables for habitat suitability. SSP1-2.6 exhibited fluctuating habitat area with partial recovery by 2070s, while SSP5-8.5 projected a near-complete loss of suitable habitats by 2090s. The ensemble model demonstrated robust performance, providing reliable predictions across all scenarios. This study highlights the substantial impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of Abies koreana and underscores the importance of understanding these changes to preserve vulnerable alpine ecosystems.
서 론
재료 및 방 법
1. 연구 대상지 및 대상종
2. 기후 시나리오 및 자료 구축
3. 서식지 분포 모델링
4. 잠재 서식지 예측 및 분석
결 과
1. 서식지 모델 평가
2. 생물기후 변수의 기여도 분석
3. 모형별 잠재 서식지 예측
4. 앙상블 모델 (EMW)에 따른 미래 잠재 서식지 변화
고 찰
1. 주요 변수의 기여
2. SSP 시나리오별 서식지 변화 이유
3. SDM과 EMW 성능 차이
4. 연구의 한계와 추가 연구 방향
결 론
REFERENCES
