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베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 원양어선 위험요인 분석에 관한 연구 KCI 등재

A study on risk factors analysis of distant water fishing vessels using Bayesian networks

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  • URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/444761
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수산해양기술연구 (Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology)
한국수산해양기술학회(구 한국어업기술학회) (The Korean Society of Fisheriers and Ocean Technology)
초록

This study aims to analyze the risk factors contributing to marine accidents involving Korean distant water fishing vessels using a Bayesian network approach. As marine accidents in this sector often result in severe casualties and significant economic losses, understanding their underlying causes is critical. Based on official investigation records from the Korea Maritime Safety Tribunal (2000-2023), a dataset of 46 accident cases involving longliners, trawlers, and other fishing vessels was constructed. The analysis categorized accidents by vessel types, gross tonnage, vessel age, location, operating status, and specific causes, including poor lookout and inadequate maintenance. Following the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) framework recommended by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the study applied Bayesian networks to quantify the probabilistic relationships among risk factors. The results revealed that the most hazardous conditions for different accident types included: vessels with 300-500 GT, aged 20-40 years, operating outside harbor limits during navigation or fishing. Specifically, collision and grounding incidents were primarily associated with poor lookout, while sinking and fire/explosion incidents were linked to inadequate maintenance. The findings underscore the necessity of tailored safety control measures for each accident type and vessel category. This research provides empirical evidence to support decision-making for improving safety policies under the Act on the Punishment of Serious Accidents and the Distant Water Fisheries Development Act.

목차
서 론
자료 및 방법
    분석에 이용한 자료
    해양사고 위험요인 분류
    분석 방법
결과 및 고찰
    해양사고 현황
    총톤수에 따른 해양사고 현황
    선령에 따른 해양사고 현황
    사고 위치에 따른 해양사고 현황
    항해상태에 따른 해양사고 현황
    사고 원인에 따른 해양사고 현황
    베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 위험요인 분석
    충돌의 정량적 위험 분석
    좌초의 정량적 위험 분석
    침몰의 정량적 위험 분석
    화재폭발의 정량적 위험 분석
    위험성 감소 대책
결 론
References
저자
  • 박용예(국립부경대학교 글로벌수산대학원 어업생산학과 대학원생) | Yong-Ye PARK (Department of Fishery Production, Graduate School of World Fisheries, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea)
  • 이승현(국립부경대학교 실습선 항해사) | Seung-Hyun LEE (Deck officer, Training Ship, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea)
  • 김수형(국립부경대학교 실습선 교수) | Su-Hyung KIM (Professor, Training Ship, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea)
  • 류경진(국립부경대학교 해양생산시스템관리학부 교수) | Kyung-Jin RYU (Professor, Division of Marine Production System Management, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea)
  • 이유원(국립부경대학교 해양생산시스템관리학부 교수) | Yoo-Won LEE (Professor, Division of Marine Production System Management, Pukyong National University, Busan 48513, Korea) Corresponding author