Nutrient loads in inland rivers can propagate downstream to estuaries and near-coastal waters, where water-quality conditions may affect fisheries and aquaculture. This study examines the effect of a nutrient load control program on total phosphorus in South Korea. Using a difference-in-differences approach with fixed effect models, the study constructs monitoring stations in the Nakdong, Geum, and Yeongsan rivers as the treatment group and monitoring stations in the Han River as the control group. The study leverages total phosphorus (TP) control as the policy intervention. Using monitor-by-time data from the national Total Maximum Daily Load network from 2007 to 2012, the study found that TP levels decreased by approximately 3.6% after the policy intervention. The study further examines flexible and honest DIDs and finds limited but suggestive evidence of this improvement. The findings provide suggestive evidence of load-based regulation in reducing TP and provide policy-relevant evidence on upstream nutrient control that may inform broader downstream water-quality management in connected river-estuary systems.

Abstract
I. Introduction
Ⅱ. Policy Background
Ⅲ. Empirical strategy
Ⅳ. Data and results
    1. Data
    2. Results
Ⅴ. Conclusion
REFERENCES

• 김태현(한국농촌경제연구원 부연구위원) | Tae-Hyun Kim (Associate Research Fellow, Department of Food & Agriculture Economic Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute, Naju-si, Jellanam-do, 58321, Rep. of Korea) Corresponding author