The complexity of the Philippines’ South China Sea policy necessitates a multi-level analysis of the key tenets of the Marcos Jr. administration’s approach. From the perspective of neoclassical realism, the structural factor, primarily shaped by the trilateral dynamics among China, the United States, and the Philippines, remains a key determinant influencing Manila’s policy formulation. Nevertheless, the mediating function of intervening variables, including President Marcos Jr.’s personal perception and the stances of Manila’s domestic actors, substantially shapes how the structural factor is transformed into concrete policy. As a result, the Marcos Jr. administration insists on not abandoning its maritime claims, strengthens its control over the occupied islands and reefs, employs diplomatic channels to maximize strategic gains, closely aligns with the US, and expands its network of security partnerships. To promote regional peace and stability, the relevant stakeholders ought to finalize the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea in the near future.

1. Introduction
2. Structural Factors and the South China Sea Issue
3. Intervening Variables and the South China SeaIssue
    A. Marcos Jr.’s Perception of the South China Sea Issue
    B. Domestic Actors in the Philippines
4. The Components of Marcos Jr. Administration’sSouth China Sea Policy
    A. Upholding Territorial Claims and Military Actions
    B. Diplomatic Toolbox
    C. Closer Ties with Washington
    D. Security Partnership Expansion and Military Modernization
5. Conclusion

• Yiwei Liu(Post-doctoral fellow at the Department of History at Sun Yat-sen University)
• Xingjun Liu(Associate Professor at the School of Foreign Languages, Xizang Minzu University)