In this study, we present a probabilistic simulation framework that combines a Pseudo-Dynamic Rupture Model with SPECFEM3D to estimate ground motions in areas with limited seismic observations. We generate multiple rupture scenarios that reflect the statistical characteristics of fault parameters, and we integrate these scenarios with a 3D velocity structure model for numerical wave propagation simulations. The numerical mesh is refined to accurately simulate ground motions in the frequency range of 0.1-3 Hz. Despite the limited resolution of currently available 3D velocity models, our numerical simulation results capture key features of ground motion, including the effects of fault rupture complexity, to some extent. We apply this method to the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake (Mw 5.4) and compute the probability density function of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) at selected sites, allowing us to quantitatively assess the uncertainties associated with fault rupture.

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1. 서 론
2. 지진동 모사 및 추정 방법론
    2.1 유사동역학모델을 활용한 단층파열 시나리오 생성
    2.2 SPECFEM3D 기반의 3차원 지진파전파모사
    2.3 지진동 확률분포 산출
3. 결 론
/ 감사의 글 /
/ REFERENCES /
/ 부록 A /
/ 부록 B /

• 천화성(서울대학교 지구환경과학부 선임연구원) | Cheon Hwa Sung (Researcher, School of Earth and Environmental Science, Seoul National University)
• 이상현(서울대학교 지구환경과학부 선임연구원) | Lee Sang-Hyun (Researcher, School of Earth and Environmental Science, Seoul National University) Corresponding author
• 이준기(서울대학교 지구환경과학부 교수) | Rhie Junkee (Professor, School of Earth and Environmental Science, Seoul National University)