This study analyzes changes in the road-user conflict characteristics of personal mobility (PM) crashes in Seoul before and after safety regulations were strengthened on May 13, 2021. 2,399 police-reported PM crashes from 2017 to 2024 were reconstructed at the crash level. Crash types were classified as PM-pedestrian conflicts, PM-vehicle conflicts, or single-PM crashes. The primary comparison used two-year pre- and post-policy windows, and an additional one-year comparison was conducted to examine short-term changes. Monthly segmented count models and multinomial logistic regression models were applied as supplementary analyses. In the two-year comparison, crash counts increased after the regulation was implemented; however, the crash type, severity, and time-period composition did not change significantly. In the one-year comparison, crash counts decreased and the crash type composition changed significantly. The multinomial logistic regression results also showed a short-term increase in the relative share of PM-vehicle crashes compared with PM-pedestrian crashes; however, this change was not sustained in the two-year comparison. Changes in the conflict characteristics of PM crashes after safety regulations were partially observed in the short term, but they cannot be interpreted as persistent medium-term changes. Because exposure and enforcement data were unavailable, the findings should be interpreted as observed changes in police-reported crash characteristics rather than as the causal effects of regulation.

ABSTRACT
1. 서론
2. 선행연구 고찰
    2.1. PM 사고 특성 및 도로이용자 상충 특성 연구
    2.2. PM 사고 심각도 및 사고유형별 영향요인 연구
    2.3. PM 제도 및 안전 규제 관련 연구
    2.4. 도시·근린환경 및 공간적 사고 위험 연구
    2.5. 정책 전후 비교 및 규제 영향 연구
    2.6. 선행연구 종합 및 본 연구의 차별성
3. 자료 및 분석 방법
    3.1. 분석 자료
    3.2. 정책 시점과 비교 기간
    3.3. 변수 정의
    3.4. 분석 방법
4. 분석 결과
    4.1. 연도별 사고 추세
    4.2. 규제 시행 전후 2년 비교
    4.3. 규제 시행 전후 1년 비교
    4.4. 월별 사고건수 분할 회귀
    4.5. 사고유형 다항 로지스틱 회귀
    4.6. 안전 장비 착용 여부 보조 검토
5. 토의
6. 결론
REFERENCES

• 이동윤(한국교통연구원 도로교통연구본부 주임연구원) | Lee Dong-youn Corresponding author