정보 불확실성을 고려한 동적 다층방어체계 운용개념 연구
The growing sophistication of adversarial ballistic missile threats, along with the development of multilayered defense systems to counter them, has increased the importance of establishing efficient operational concepts. However, existing studies on multilayered defense and weapon allocation have mainly focused on dynamic allocation procedures or time constraints, and have not sufficiently reflected the uncertainty of detection information and its changes over time, which serve as key grounds for decision- making. This study proposes a dynamic command-system-based operational concept for multilayered defense that allows command decisions to be revised in response to changes in detection information, and develops an effectiveness simulation tool to implement it. The proposed operational concept is designed to reflect real operational environments in which detection information is updated progressively over time, enabling the continuous reassessment of existing engagement plans and weapon-target allocation results. In addition, comparative experiments were conducted by varying the timing of information utilization in order to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed concept. The results show that an early response increases unnecessary allocations and cancellations due to low information accuracy, whereas a delayed response limits interception opportunities because of reduced available response time. A strategy that responds after a certain level of information accuracy has been secured was found to be superior in terms of both resource utilization efficiency and defense effectiveness. These findings demonstrate that an operational concept adaptive to changes in information can have a meaningful impact on actual defense effectiveness, and they provide implications for establishing command-and-control structures and procedures for future multilayered defense systems.