Evaluating the Performance of Vietnam’s National Target Program on New Rural Development (NTP-NRD): A Dynamic Analysis of Regional Gaps Using the Rural Development Index (RDI)
To overcome the methodological constraints of evaluating nationwide development programs where valid control groups cannot be established, this study develops a dynamic, multidimensional Rural Development Index (RDI) framework to assess the performance of Vietnam's National Target Program on New Rural Development (NTP-NRD). Utilizing panel data across three time points (2010, 2016, and 2020) from the General Statistics Office (GSO) of Vietnam, we trace the spatio- temporal performance trajectories across 63 provinces based on a ‘Cause–Result’ dual framework. Empirical findings demonstrate that the national average RDI increased by 15.5%, rising from 0.702 in 2010 to 0.811 in 2020, driven by substantial progress in social infrastructure such as education and health. However, persistent spatial rigidities were observed in economic dimensions, highlighting a structural decoupling between physical infrastructure investments and tangible per capita income growth. Spatial analysis further reveals that top-performing provinces achieved balanced, multi-dimensional growth, whereas peripheral and mountainous regions faced severe limitations in income generation and economic base development despite high rates of infrastructure index improvement. By proving that a multidimensional spatial index can effectively diagnose regional policy bottlenecks in the absence of counterfactuals, this study offers a rigorous, data-driven analytical foundation for designing region-specific development strategies and evaluating official development assistance (ODA) initiatives in developing economies.