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기후변화에 따른 우수리뒤영벌 (Bombus ussurensis)의 남한 내 서식적합지 변화 및 분포 이동 예측 KCI 등재 SCOPUS
- 언어KOR
- URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/453333
Climate change significantly impacts the habitats of cold-adapted pollinators, particularly affecting populations at the trailing (southern) edge of a species’ range. This study predicts current and future changes in habitat suitability and distribution shifts of Bombus ussurensis, a boreal bumblebee found in Northeast China, the Russian Far East, and the Korean Peninsula, specifically within South Korea. Using MaxEnt, habitat suitability was estimated based on four climatic variables and three land-cover variables, and projected to future climates from three general circulation models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for two future periods (the 2050s and 2070s). The minimum temperature of the coldest month emerged as the most important predictor, confirming that this species requires a sufficiently cold winter climate. Current suitable habitat is concentrated in the mountainous regions of Gangwon-do, aligning with previous field surveys. Under all future scenarios, suitable habitat is projected to decline by 36.7% to 59.1% relative to the present, with greater losses under the highemission scenario and in later periods. Although the distributional centroid is expected to shift northeastward and to higher elevations, newly suitable areas largely form beyond the northern border of South Korea, resulting in minimal range expansion within the country and a net habitat loss. These findings indicate that the South Korean population of B. ussurensis is highly vulnerable to climate change, constrained by a lack of climatic refugia in both horizontal and vertical dimensions. This study provides a quantitative assessment of the current and future potential distribution of B. ussurensis in South Korea, offering baseline information for understanding climate-change vulnerability and developing conservation strategies for pollinators.
1. 서 론
2. 재료 및 방법
2.1. 종 출현 자료
2.2. 환경변수
2.3. 미래 기후 시나리오
2.4. 종분포모형
2.5. 서식적합지 분석
3. 결 과
3.1. 모형 성능 및 변수 기여도
3.2. 현재 서식적합지
3.3. 미래 서식적합지 변화
3.4. 분포의 공간적 변화 및 이동
3.5. 미래 분포 예측의 모델 간 불확실성
4. 고 찰
적 요
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Declaration of Competing Interest
사 사
REFERENCES
