Korean Journal of Environmental Biology Vol. 40 No. 2 (p.214-223)

MaxEnt를 활용한 기후변화와 토지 피복 변화에 따른 멸강나방 및 혹명나방의 한국 내 분포 변화 분석과 예측

Analysis and estimation of species distribution of Mythimna seperata and Cnaphalocrocis medinalis with land-cover data under climate change scenario using MaxEnt
키워드 :
Migratory insect pests,Species Distribution Model,Maximum Entropy,Representative Concentration Pathway scenario,Shared Socio-economic Pathways scenario

목차

Abstract
서 론
재료 및 방법
   1. 연구 범위 및 출현 자료
   2. 환경 변수
결 과
   1. 멸강나방 서식지 적합성 및 Binary map
   2. 혹명나방 서식지 적합성 및 Binary map
고 찰
적 요
사 사
REFERENCES

초록

Among migratory insect pests, Mythimna seperata and Cnaphalocrocis medinalis are invasive pests introduced into South Korea through westerlies from southern China. M. seperata and C. medinalis are insect pests that use rice as a host. They injure rice leaves and inhibit rice growth. To understand the distribution of M. seperata and C. medinalis, it is important to understand environmental factors such as temperature and humidity of their habitat. This study predicted current and future habitat suitability models for understanding the distribution of M. seperata and C. medinalis. Occurrence data, SSPs (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) scenario, and RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) were applied to MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy), a machine learning model among SDM (Species Distribution Model). As a result, M. seperata and C. medinalis are aggregated on the west and south coasts where they have a host after migration from China. As a result of MaxEnt analysis, the contribution was high in the order of Land-cover data and DEM (Digital Elevation Model). In bioclimatic variables, BIO_4 (Temperature seasonality) was high in M. seperata and BIO_2 (Mean Diurnal Range) was found in C. medinalis. The habitat suitability model predicted that M. seperata and C. medinalis could inhabit most rice paddies.