Korea is facing a significant problem with historically low fertility rates, which is becoming a major social issue affecting the economy, labor force, and national security. This study analyzes the factors contributing to the regional gap in fertility rates and derives policy implications. The government and local authorities are implementing a range of policies to address the issue of low fertility. To establish an effective strategy, it is essential to identify the primary factors that contribute to regional disparities. This study identifies these factors and explores policy implications through machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence. The study also examines the influence of media and public opinion on childbirth in Korea by incorporating news and online community sentiment, as well as sentiment fear indices, as independent variables. To establish the relationship between regional fertility rates and factors, the study employs four machine learning models: multiple linear regression, XGBoost, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression. Support Vector Regression, XGBoost, and Random Forest significantly outperform linear regression, highlighting the importance of machine learning models in explaining non-linear relationships with numerous variables. A factor analysis using SHAP is then conducted. The unemployment rate, Regional Gross Domestic Product per Capita, Women's Participation in Economic Activities, Number of Crimes Committed, Average Age of First Marriage, and Private Education Expenses significantly impact regional fertility rates. However, the degree of impact of the factors affecting fertility may vary by region, suggesting the need for policies tailored to the characteristics of each region, not just an overall ranking of factors.

본 연구는 저출산 현상이 가속화 되고 있는 상황에서 임신･출산･육아 의료 서비스의 현황과 지역적 불균형을 탐색하되 행정구역 내 변이를 고려하여 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 공간분석 단위를 세분화하여 행정구역 내에서도 의료기관의 접근성에 격차가 있는지를 확인하였다. 가임연령 여성 및 0~5세 인구를 수요로 간주하고, 임신･출산･육아를 진료 과목으로 하는 전문의 및 응급병상의 규모와 분포를 수요와의 공간적 배치를 고려한 공간적 접근성을 산출하였다. 분석 결과 수요에 비해 임신･출산 인프라의 지역간 공급이 불균등하게 분포하고 있음을 확인할 수 있었고 접근성이 취약한 지역은 특정 지역으로 수렴되는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

Korean women’s fertility rate is rapidly declining as it goes down from 4.5 in 1970 to 1.3 in 2002. The impacts of the low fertility rate are many, e.g., the decline of Korean population, the lack of industrial man powers, the numerical rise of foreign workers, the growth of older generation, and so on. Soon Korean church will be under direct impacts of the low fertility rate as well. The present paper aims to investigate (1) the growth rate of Korean Christian pop띠 ation based on the scientific national census; (2) the rapid decline of the Korean women’s fertility rate; (3) the influence of the 1997 IMF econornic crisis upon the decline of fertility rate; (4) practical suggestions for the future ministry from missiological analysis which include counseling, silver rninistry, rninistry to corning generation, rninistry to foreign workers, and encouragement for childbe뻐ng for the Christian farnilies. What Korean churches need now is to recognize the importance of the rnissionary proclaim in the Book of Genesis (9: 1): “Be fruitful and multiply, and replenish the earth." Otherwise, Korean church would have a significant difficulty to maintain the present energy and enthusiasm due to the sharp decline of the Christian pop비ation in Korea near soon.