Statistical analyses were performed to investigate the relative success and accuracy of daily maximum X-ray flux (MXF) predictions, using both multilinear regression and autoregressive time-series prediction methods. As input data for this work, we used 14 solar activity parameters recorded over the prior 2 year period (1989-1990) during the solar maximum of cycle 22. We applied the multilinear regression method to the following three groups: all 14 variables (G1), the 2 so-called 'cause' variables (sunspot complexity and sunspot group area) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G2), and the 2 'effect' variables (previous day MXF and the number of flares stronger than C4 class) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G3). For the advanced three days forecast, we applied the autoregressive timeseries method to the MXF data (GT). We compared the statistical results of these groups for 1991 data, using several statistical measures obtained from a 2x2 contingency table for forecasted versus observed events. As a result, we found that the statistical results of G1 and G3 are nearly the same each other and the 'effect' variables (G3) are more reliable predictors than the 'cause' variables. It is also found that while the statistical results of GT are a little worse than those of G1 for relatively weak flares, they are comparable to each other for strong flares. In general, all statistical measures show good predictions from all groups, provided that the flares are weaker than about M5 class; stronger flares rapidly become difficult to predict well, which is probably due to statistical inaccuracies arising from their rarity. Our statistical results of all flares except for the X-class flares were confirmed by Yates' X2 statistical significance tests, at the 99% confidence level. Based on our model testing, we recommend a practical strategy for solar X-ray flare predictions.

투과증발공정에서 polydimethylsiloxane(PDMS)막에 대한 용매의 수착특성과 투과 플럭스를 예측하는 방법을 제시하였다. 이 방법을 이용하여 chloroform, toluene, methoanol, n-butanol의 수착량과 투과 플럭스를 계산하였으며, 계산값과 실험값을 비교하였다. 팽윤을 촉진시키는 정용매(good solvent)인 toluene과 chloroform의 경우 계산된 수착량과 투과 플럭스는 실험값과 잘 일치하였다. 막의 밀도가 작을수록 수착량과 투과 플럭스는 증가하였다. 팽윤을 억제시키는 부용매(poor solvent)인 methanol, n-butanol의 경우는 실험값과 상당한 오차가 있었다. 따라서, 본 미케니즘에 의해 PDMS막에 대한 정용매의 수착량과 투과 플럭스는 실험에 의하지 않고도 이론적으로 예측할 수 있는 가능성을 보여주었다.