The aging of farm households has caused serious problems such as productivity slowdown and aggravated income polarization in South Korea. Urban-to-rural migration has been recently suggested as a measure to attenuate the aging of rural population and other related problems. The inflow of migrants for farming can have a substantial effect on agriculture and rural communities while the natural adjustment of rural population caused by birth and death is slow. This paper forecasts population distribution of different provinces using the Origin-Destination (OD) analysis, taking into account both the size and directions of migration. In the analysis, nodes where the migration takes place are divided by the industrial sectors (agriculture and non-agriculture), regions, and ages. The results of a ten-year forecast shows that the aging of total population in most provinces will be intensified, but the portion of people over sixty will decrease in the agricultural sector. This finding implies that migration into rural areas, when occurring by a large extent, can mitigate the aging process and attendant problems.

Settlement problems in rural area are gradually becoming more intense due to decreasing agricultural income led by market globalization. Rural tourism is considered as one of alternatives for complementing agricultural income. In this study, we analyzed the relation of rural development project and the influx of population on green tourism villages. Results show that the influx of population in rural area is related with project cost, tourism income, visiting numbers, and ratio of labor population. With these results, we modified rural population model for estimating future rural population. Adapted result to Buraemi village by modified model showed that estimation error can be decreased from 7.23% to 0.95%.