Korea is facing a significant problem with historically low fertility rates, which is becoming a major social issue affecting the economy, labor force, and national security. This study analyzes the factors contributing to the regional gap in fertility rates and derives policy implications. The government and local authorities are implementing a range of policies to address the issue of low fertility. To establish an effective strategy, it is essential to identify the primary factors that contribute to regional disparities. This study identifies these factors and explores policy implications through machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence. The study also examines the influence of media and public opinion on childbirth in Korea by incorporating news and online community sentiment, as well as sentiment fear indices, as independent variables. To establish the relationship between regional fertility rates and factors, the study employs four machine learning models: multiple linear regression, XGBoost, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression. Support Vector Regression, XGBoost, and Random Forest significantly outperform linear regression, highlighting the importance of machine learning models in explaining non-linear relationships with numerous variables. A factor analysis using SHAP is then conducted. The unemployment rate, Regional Gross Domestic Product per Capita, Women's Participation in Economic Activities, Number of Crimes Committed, Average Age of First Marriage, and Private Education Expenses significantly impact regional fertility rates. However, the degree of impact of the factors affecting fertility may vary by region, suggesting the need for policies tailored to the characteristics of each region, not just an overall ranking of factors.
Korean women’s fertility rate is rapidly declining as it goes down from 4.5 in 1970 to 1.3 in 2002. The impacts of the low fertility rate are many, e.g., the decline of Korean population, the lack of industrial man powers, the numerical rise of foreign workers, the growth of older generation, and so on. Soon Korean church will be under direct impacts of the low fertility rate as well. The present paper aims to investigate (1) the growth rate of Korean Christian pop띠 ation based on the scientific national census; (2) the rapid decline of the Korean women’s fertility rate; (3) the influence of the 1997 IMF econornic crisis upon the decline of fertility rate; (4) practical suggestions for the future ministry from missiological analysis which include counseling, silver rninistry, rninistry to corning generation, rninistry to foreign workers, and encouragement for childbe뻐ng for the Christian farnilies. What Korean churches need now is to recognize the importance of the rnissionary proclaim in the Book of Genesis (9: 1): “Be fruitful and multiply, and replenish the earth." Otherwise, Korean church would have a significant difficulty to maintain the present energy and enthusiasm due to the sharp decline of the Christian pop비ation in Korea near soon.