Low inflation and sustainable growth have been the major macroeconomic goals being pursued by every developing country, Vietnam inclusive. The effect of inflation on economic growth has been intensively analyzed by a variety of studies, but the empirical evidence more often than not remains controversial and ambiguous. One common hypothesis of previous studies is that they have assumed that the effect of inflation on growth is symmetric. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effect of inflation and money supply on economic growth using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach introduced by Shin, Byungchul, and Greenwood-nimmo (2013) for Vietnam over the period 1990-2017. Empirical results provide evidence that the effects of inflation on economic growth are negative and asymmetric in the long run. The impact of money supply on growth is positive in both the short-run and long-run. Accordingly, the impact of the increase in the inflation rate is bigger than the decreasing in the long-run. This different impact is significant and high inflation will destruct economic activities. As a result, the study provides empirical evidence for the authorities to plan monetary policies and control the rate of inflation to achieve sustainable economic development in the long-run.
The study aims to investigate the pattern of relationships such as symmetric or asymmetric, between exchange rate and foreign direct investment in Bangladesh by applying Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL. In this study, we employed quarterly data for the period of 1974Q1 to 2016Q4. Data were collected and aggregated from various sources namely, Bangladesh Economic Review published by Ministry of Finance and statistical yearbook published by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and an annual report published by Bangladesh Bank. The relationship between exchange rate and FDI inflows attract immense interest in the recent periods, especially for developing countries’ perspective. The results of the study ascertain the long run relationship between FDI, exchange rate, monetary policy, and fiscal policy. Considering the asymmetric assumption, the findings from NARDL confirm the existence of a long-run asymmetric relationship in the empirical equation. In the long run, it is observed that positive change that is the appreciation of exchange rate against USD decrease FDI inflows and negative shocks results in grater inflows of FDI, however, the positive shocks produce higher intensity that negative shocks in Exchange rate. For directional causality, the coefficients of error correction term confirm long-run causality, in particular, bidirectional causality unveiled between FDI and exchange rate.