The objective of the current study is to investigate and evaluate the annual and seasonal rainfall trends and patterns of the Punjab province, Pakistan during the 1981-2015. The spatial patterns and temporal trends were identified through the Modified Mann Kendall test. Finding revealed that 13 weather stations of Punjab province have shown the statistically significant decreasing trend of annual and summer monsoon rainfall during the study period. From further investigation, the rainfall during the summer monsoon period (JJAS) found to be increased by 12.45%, similarly the rainfall during the whole of year be also increased by 18.75%. The significant decreasing trends observed with the higher percentage change in annual and monsoon rainfall for the stations of Sialkot and Lahore in the northern and central Punjab. The empirical evidences suggested that northern Punjab gets more moisture as compared the Southern and Western Punjab. This study suggests intensive empirical research in the future to evolve further spatio-temporal trends in the rainfall pattern of Punjab.
The changes in extreme daily rainfall totals in Punjab Province, Pakistan, during the period (1981- 2014) are examined in this study. The analysis was focused on the extreme annual and monthly rainfall events, by processing the exceeding of the daily rainfall over various thresholds, which are indicators for the incidence of extreme rainfall events. To analyze the changes in extreme rainfall events and trends of the time series of the annual number of extreme rainfall days (%) the thresholds of 30mm and 50mm has been estimated. Evidence from the twelve stations considered shows that there is an increase in annual number of extreme rainfall days (%) in dataset. These changes of heavy and extreme rainfall events pronounce significant environmental consequences which cause considerable impact on society.