This paper is to study a technique to detect the real-time route aberrance on the passage route using bumper area of the ship domain theory. In order to evaluate the risk of route aberrance, a quarter line was created between the center line and the outer line, and a passage route with the image line outside the outer line was designed. It calculated the real-time route aberrance with the vessel bumper area to measure the risk level on the passage route. The route aberrance using overlap bumper area was simulated through three kinds of scenario vessel at the designed passage route. In this paper, we proposed Ratio to Aberrance Risk as one of the evaluation parameter to detect the route aberrance risk at each sector in the passage route and to give the evaluation criteria of 5 levels for seafarer’s navigation safety. The purpose of this work is to provide the information of the route aberrance to seafarer automatically, to make it possible to prevent the human errors of seafarer on the high risk aberrance route. As the real-time risk of route aberrance on the passage route is automatically evaluated, it was well thought that seafarer can have only a little workload in order to know the risk of route aberrance at early-time. Following the further development of this work, the techniques for detecting the real-time route aberrance will be able to use the unmanned vessel.

본 연구에서는 해상교통혼잡도에 영향을 미치는 요소인 선박점용영역크기, 선박의 속력, 항로폭에 대한 민감도 분석을 실시하였으며, 가장 민감한 요소로 선박점용영역을 도출하였다. 선박점용영역에 대해 일본, 덴마크 해협, 중국 상하이항에서의 점용영역에 대한 기존 연구사례를 조사하고, 우리나라 진해만 피항시의 해상교통관측조사를 통한 선박점용영역을 도출하여 비교 분석하였다. 민감도 분석 결과, 선박속력 1노트 변화시 10 %, 항로폭 100미터 변화시 18 %, 점용영역 장직경 1L 변화시 34 %∼43 %의 영향이 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 그 결과, 현행 진단제도에서 사용하는 8L×3.2L, 6L×1.6L은 일본의 3.5L×1.5L, 중국 상하이항 5.9L×2.2L, 덴마크 해협 4L×5B 및 진해만 피항시의 선박점용영역 3L×2L과 큰 차이가 있음을 확인하였다.