본 연구는 Rolling Asymmetric VAR-BEKK-GARCH 모형으로 한·중·일·미 4개 주식 시장 변동성의 비대칭 전이효과를 분석하였다. 연구는 시장 변동성의 정태적인 전이 효과뿐만 아니라 시간가변적인 비대칭 전이효과를 파악하였다. 분석 결과에 따르면, 중국 시장 호황기에는 비대칭 변동성 전이효과의 부호가 대체로 음(-)으로, 시장 불황기나 불안정 시기에는 양(+)의 부호로 나타났다. 또한, 한국, 일본, 미국 등 시장의 충격이 중국 시장 변동성에 대한 영향은 비교적 일관된 방향성을 보이며, 반면에 중국발 충격이 타 시장의 변동성에 미치는 영향은 시간가변적인 특징을 나타냈다. 이는 중국 금융 시장의 동태적 특성을 파악하는 데 유의미한 시사점을 제공할 수 있다.

The objective of this study is to enrich the literature by investigating the impact of introduction of index future trading on spot market returns and trading volume in Vietnam. Data used in this study mainly consist of daily VN30-Index and market trading volume series during the period from February 6th, 2012 to December 31st, 2019. Using OLS, GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models, the empirical findings consistently confirm that the introduction of index future trading has no impact on the spot market returns. In addition, the results of the EGARCH(1,1) model indicate that the leverage effect on the spot market volatility is existence in HOSE. Specifically, bad news has a greater effect on the market volatility than good news of the same size. Moreover, our empirical findings reveal that the introduction of index future contracts has the positive impact on the underlying market trading volume. Specifically, the trading volume of the post-index futures introduction increases by 7.5 percent compared with the pre-index futures introduction. Finally, the results obtained from the Granger causality test for the relationship between the spot market returns and the future trading activity confirm that only uni-directional causality running from the market returns to the future trading activity exists in HOSE.

This study aims to investigate the effect of oil price and exchange rate on the two Vietnamese stock market indices: VN index and HXN index. This study uses the daily data from August 1st 2000 to October 25th 2019 of the two Vietnamese stock indices: VN index and HNX index, the two oil price indices: BRENT and WTI, and the two exchange rates: US dollar to Vietnamese dong and Euro to Vietnamese dong. Due to the presence of heteroskedasticity in our data, we use GARCH (1,1) regression model to perform our analysis. Our findings show that the oil price has a significant positive effect on the two Vietnamese stock market indices. In terms of the stock index volatility, both the VN index and HNX index volatilities are negatively impacted by the return of oil price. While the conclusion about the impact of oil price remained consistent through all three robustness tests, the effect of exchange rate on Vietnamese stock market indices is not consistent. We find thatchanges of the USD/VND exchange rate significantly impact the return and volatility of HNX index only in GARCH (1,1) setting. Our analysis also survives a number of robustness tests.