This study investigated the vertical displacement behavior caused by differential drying shrinkage in jointed concrete pavements. This study proposed a method to convert this behavior into an equivalent linear temperature difference for structural analysis. Controlled experiments were conducted under varying humidity and airflow conditions to simulate pavement environments. The test results showed that a lower relative humidity and added airflow significantly increased the vertical displacement, particularly at the slab edges. A 3D finite element model using ABAQUS was developed to analyze the behavior and derive the equivalent linear temperature difference that increased with curing age and varied notably with environmental conditions. These findings highlighted the impact of early-age environmental factors on the shrinkage behavior and suggested that the proposed method offered a practical approach for predicting deformation without repeated physical testing.