Targeting Microcystin (MC), which is most abundantly detected in the North-Han River water area, we analyzed the relationship between the MC biosynthesis gene (mcyA gene), cyanobacteria cell density, and MC concentration, derived an RNA-MC conversion formula, and derived the cyanobacteria. The concentration of MC present in cells was predicted. In the North-Han River waters, the mcyA gene was found mainly at downstream sites of the North-Han River after Muk-Hyeon Stream junction, and higher copy numbers were found on average than other sites. In the Uiam Lake waters upstream of the North-Han River, the mcyA gene copy number increased at the Kong-Ji Stream point, and after September, the mcyA gene copy number decreased throughout the North-Han River waters. The expression of the mcyA gene was concentrated in the short period of summer due to the spatio-temporal difference between upstream and downstream water bodies. The mcyA gene expression level was not only highly correlated with MC concentration, but also correlated with the cell density of Microcystis aeruginosa and Dolichospermum circinale, which are known to biosynthesize MC. Six conversion formulas derived based on the RNA-MC relationship showed statistical significance (p<0.05) and exhibited high correlation coefficients (r) of 0.9 or higher. The expression level of MC biosynthesis gene present in eRNA determines the synthesis of cyanotoxin substances in water, quickly quantifies gene activity, and can be fully utilized for early warning of MC development.