동아시아 여름몬순의 강도와 북서태평양 여름몬순의 강도는 음의 상관을 갖는 것으로 알려져 왔다. 여기서 우리는 이 관계를 이용하여 북동아시아 여름철 강수의 잠재예측성을 조사하였다. 북서태평양 아열대 고기압은 북서태평양 여름몬순을 적절히 나타내며, 북서태평양-동아시아 지역 여름철 기후편차에 주된 성분이다. 그리고 북서태평양 아열대고기압 변동성을 이용한 북동아시아 여름철 강수 편차의 추정값은 북서태평양 여름몬순지수를 이용하는 것보다 더 낫다.

Three numerical experiments are done using IAP(Institute of Atmospheric Physics) global spectral model(T42L9) to investigate the influence of the surface temperatures on the 7-day simulation. Particularly, the response of the subtropical High in summer to the variation of soil temperature and sea surface temperature(SST) was emphasized through a series of experiments. Experiment 1 uses the June climate data as the earth surface conditions. Experiment 2 is similar to Experiment 1 except for the soil surface temperature. Experiment 3 is the same as Experiment 1 except for the modified SST, which is much warmer than the June climate SST on the sea around the Korean peninsula. The main finding in 7-day simulation is that the response of the subtropical high in summer to the variation of the soil surface temperature was much more than that to the variation of the SST. It is implied that the proper treatment of soil surface temperature is more important than that of the SST for the better 7-day simulation of the subtropical high in summer.