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Evaluation of establishment potential of Bactrocera doralis (Hendel) in future Korea using climate suitability and temporal distribution of host availability
The oriental fruit flies, Bactrocera doralis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae), a tropical pest, have recently been expanded to temperate region neighboring with Korea, with increasing international trade and global climate change. The biological data of several B. dorsalis complex was collected, and the establishment potential in Korea was examined using ecoclimatic index and population model results obtained from CLIMEX and Popmodel, respectively. In the CLIMEX, B. dorsalis could be established in the small part of Jeju Island in the 2010s, and the range gradually spread until the 2090s, and many parts of the lowland of Jeju Island were assigned in the marginal to optimal range. Using the population model and the temporal distribution of the host fruits, it was found that B. dorsalis can use a variety of host plants without time lag, allowing them to increase its population and to damage citrus, the main crop of Jeju.
