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Modeling the effects of climate change on insect pest-natural enemy systems using population dynamics and species interaction strength
- 언어ENG
- URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/312962
Global warming can seriously influence on the interaction between pest and natural enemy in the agroecosystem due to the differences in optimal temperature ranges. Two aphid-ladybug systems, Myzus persicae-Coccinella septempunctata (M-C) and Aphis gossypii-Coccinella septempunctata (A-C) in the pepper crop were simulated, respectively under four different temperature scenarios including crop development over 244 days with the assumption that the average temperature is higher by 1, 3, and 5 °C than that in Seoul in 2000. Temperature-dependent functions for each aphid-ladybug system were embedded in Rosenzweig-Macathur predator-prey model to explore their population dynamics, and then Dynamic Index was used to quantify the strengths of species interactions. The result shows that the predator-prey population cycles as well as species interactions are getting shorter and stronger in both systems as temperature increased. Especially, the excessively high temperature scenario in Aphis gossypii-Coccinella septempunctata system could result in the extreme species interaction. Therefore, the increasing temperature can facilitate the effectiveness of biological control because of growing crop plant development and much stronger species interaction, although there are increases of the frequency of pest occurrences.
