From simple niche models to machine learning methods, there have been intensive efforts to understand the potentialdistribution of species in last two decades. Especially in the agricultural sector, recent SDM, Species Distribution Models,studies highly enthused to predict the potential distribution of invasive species under Climate Change. Beyond the distribution,efforts are needed to assess potential risk caused by the target pest. The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) are scenariosfor climate change impacts and adaptation measures. We used MaxEnt model to predict potential distribution of melonthrips with two RCPs (4.5, 8.5) and three SSPs (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3) scenarios. In agricultural land, the potential distributionof melon thrips increases under climate change, but the impact is reduced with the development-oriented scenario, SSP3.

The first record of Melon thrips, Thrips palmi Karny, was in 1993 in Korea, and the species has become severe pest in agricultural industry. We used two different SDMs(Species Distribution Model) which have different approaches to analyse potential distribution of the pest species in climate change scenario, MaxEnt and CLIMEX. The MaxEnt model uses historical occurrence records with environmental variables to estimate the realized niche, and CLIMEX model simulates the fundamental niche of the object based on the seasonal phenology. In MaxEnt simulation, we reduced the number of variables to avoid multi-collinearity problem until we had no pairs with an absolute Pearson correlation coefficient higher than 0.8. BIO1(Annual Mean Temperature), BIO2(Mean diurnal range), BIO3(Isothermality), BIO4(Temperature seasonality) were finally selected as predictor, and we used 10 fold cross validation option to replicate. The averaged results were used to index analysis. The CLIMEX results, The Ecoclimate Index(EI), were also normalized in 0 to 1 scale to analysis. Under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, in 2070s, the distribution of Thrips palmi was predicted to expand their territory overall agricultural area in Korea.

기후변화에 따른 해충개체군 증감모형은 해충방제를 위 한 초발생예찰과 연속적 해충변동 양상의 파악에 매우 중 요하다. 이러한 예측은 농약사용의 효율성을 높이고, 환경 에 적은 영향을 줄 수 있으므로, 현대 해충방제전략의 화두 로 볼 수 있다. 본 연구는 온도변화에 따른 해충의 농약효과 에 따른 사충률의 변화를 개체군 모형과 결합시켜 모의했다. 감수성 점박이응애를 강낭콩을 기주로 20, 25, 30, 35℃에서 Acrinathrin-Spiromesifen 혼합제와 Azocyclotin 유기주석계 농약에 노출시켰다. 생물검정 결과 점박이응애의 사충률은 온도와 농약의 종류에 따라 유의한 차이가 발생했다. 점박이 응애의 개체군 밀도변동 모의는 DYMEX를 이용했으며, 모 의결과 농약의 종류별로 기후변화에 따른 초기방제 시기와 방제횟수에 차이가 나타날 것으로 예측됐다. 본 연구결과는 미래의 기후변화에 대응한 해충방제 전략과 농약 선발에 있 어 중요한 시사점을 제공할 것으로 사료된다.

The density of sweetpotato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, on greenhouse paprika (Capsicum annuum var. angulosum) were determined by counts of the number of B. tabaci per leaflet in Jinju, Gyeungsangnamdo during 2014. Binomial sampling plans were developed based on the relationship between the mean density per leaf (m) and the proportion of leaf infested with less than T B. tabaci per leaf (PT), according to empirical model (ln(m) = α + β(ln(-ln(1-PT))). T was defined as tally threshold, and set to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (adults) and 1, 3, 5, 7 (pupae) per leaf in this study. Increasing sample size, regardless of tally threshold, had little effects on the precision of the binomial sampling plan. Increasing sample size had little effect on the precision of the estimated mean regardless of tally thresholds. T=1 was chosen as the best tally threshold for estimating densities of B. tabaci adults based on the precision on the model and T=3 was best tally thresholds in B. tabaci pupae. Using the results obtained in the greenhouse, simulated validation of the developed sampling plan by RVSP (Resampling Validation for Sampling Plan) indicated the suitable results.

Local distribution of insect pest population should be changed in near future as well as their host based on climate change scenario. Although well defined insect geographical distribution model is developed and projected its potential establishment in Korea, it has defectiveness without geographical matching of its host, because, in agriculture, insect pest damage is related by host-insect synchrony in time and space. In this study, the possible geographical distributions of two insect species, Corposina sasakii (native species) and light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana (possible invasive species), were estimated by CLIMEX simulation under RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Projected farm land suitability of apple trees was obtained from open website of Fruit Research Division, NIHHS, RDA. All the potential geographical distribution maps were overlapped then the spatial synchrony were analyzed by SADIE (spatial analysis with distance indices) , which allows improved interpretation of the spatial synchrony.

파프리카(Capsicum annuum var. angulosum)의 주요해충인 담배가루이(Bemisia tabaci)의 고정 정확도 수준에서 표본조사법(Fixedprecision sampling plan)을 개발하였다. 개발된 표본 조사법은 파프리카 온실의 담배가루이 방제체계 확립을 위해 공간분포분석, 표본추출 정시선 그리고 의사결정법으로 이루어 졌다. 자료 수집은 식물체를 상단(지상으로부터 180-220 cm), 중단(지상으로부터 80-120 cm), 하단(지상으로부터 30-70 cm)로 나누어 각 위치별 3개의 파프리카 잎에서 담배가루이 성충, 번데기를 관찰하고 그 총 수를 기록하였다. 담배가루이 성충은 식물체의 상부에서 움직이고 신초에 주로 산란하며 일정부분이 하단으로 내려오기 때문에 상단과 하단에 많이 분포하였으며, 번데기의 경우 상부에 알을 낳았지만 식물체가 크면서 알을 낳은 잎이 아랫부분이 되고 부화한 유충은 잎 뒤에 고착 상태로 우화까지 움직임이 거의 없기 때문에 중단과 하단에서 많이 분포하였다. 공간분포분석은 Taylor’s power law (TPL)를 이용하였으며, TPL계수의 차이를 공분산분석(ANCOVA)하여 차이가 없는 경우 자료를 통합하여 계산된 새 TPL 상수값을 이용하여 표본추출 정시선을 구하였다. 그리고 담배가루이 성충과 번데기의 방제밀도수준을 2.0마리와 10.0마리로 설정하여 방제의사를 결정하였다. 마지막으로 분석에 사용하지 않은 독립된 자료를 이용하여 개발된 표본추출법의 유효성을 Resampling Validation for Sampling Plan (RVSP) 프로그램으로 평가한 결과 적합한 정확도를 보였다.

A fixed-precision level sampling plan was developed for Bemisia tabaci in paprika greenhouses. A sampling plan consisted spatial distribution analysis, sampling stop line and decision making in order to establish B. tabaci control in paprika greenhouses. Sampling was conducted in two independent greenhouses at same time (GH 1, GH 2). The GH 1 and 2 were surveyed every week for 22 consecutive weeks, sampling locations of each greenhouse were 19 for GH 1, 9 for GH 2, respectively. The plants in the both greenhouse were divided top (200cm from the ground), middle (100cm from the ground), bottom (50cm from the ground) and observed B.tabaci’s adults and B.tabaci’s pupae in three paprika leaves at each position and recorded separately. GH 2 data was used to validate of fixed-precision sampling plan which developed by GH 1 data. In this study, spatial distribution analysis was evaluated using Taylor’s power law with the pooled data of the top and bottom (B.tabaci’s adults), the middle and bottom (B.tabaci’s pupae) in a 1-leaf sampling unit. Decision making is evaluated by maximum & minimum of action threshold according to the condition from several reference, and the value decided by the price of the plants. Using the results obtained in greenhouse, result simulated validation of developed sampling plan by RVSP(Resampling Validation for Sampling Plan) was showed reasonable precision level.

The establishment of insect population in certain region is affected by three major characteristics, the host spectrum, the phenological plasticity and the overwintering strategy. The geographical distribution of insect population is directly affected by their successful establishment in local environment, thus, in case of development of potential geographical distribution models, three major characteristics should be considered carefully. In this study, we developed geographical distribution model using CLIMEX system with well-known insect species, Carposina sasakii. Its geographical distribution is limited to northeast Asia including Korea, Japan, China and the Soviet Far East. C. sasakii overwinters as a full-grown larva within spherical and compactly woven larval-cocoons in the soil. We calculated Diapause Index (DI) then incorporated DI into CLIMEX system to simulate Ecoclimatic Index (EI), which stands for ability of establishment in a certain area for further studies of geographical distribution of insect populations which have overwintering strategy in their life history.

Thc climate change has the potential to significantly modify the actual distribution of insect pest with unknown consequences on agricultural systems and management strategies. In this study, Thrips palmi Karny was selected to predict distribution under climate change. T. palmi was introduced and first recorded in 1993 in Korea, and has become a serious pest of vegetable and ornamental crops. The MaxEnt was applied to T. palmi to predict its potential geographic distribution in Korea and Japan under the RCP 8.5 climate changing scenario. The MaxEnt software package is one of the most popular tools for species distribution and environmental niche modeling. The habitat prediction model of T. palmi in Korea was validated by the distribution of T. palmi in Japan. Based on the MaxEnt modeling, T. palmi would expand their potential distribution to whole Korean peninsula except the alpine region in Gangwon-do and Yanggang-do and Hamgyeongbuk-do in 2070s. Therefore, the monitoring system and management strategy for T. palmi should be reconsidered and re-evaluated.

본 연구는 Sprague-Dawley 계통의 4주령 랫드에서 MSG의 반복경구투여 독성평가와 행동실험을 통해 어린랫드의 인지능력과 불안감에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위해서 시행하였다. 시험군은 MSG 대신 distilled water를 투여한 대조군(Control, n = 4), MSG를 3 g/kg을 투여한 군(Low, n =4), MSG를 5 g/kg을 투여한 군(High, n = 4)으로 나누어 4주 동안 주5회 경구투여를 하였다. MSG의 안정성을 확인하기 위해 다음과 같은 관찰 및 검사를 하였다. 검사항목으로는 체중의 변화, 임상증상, 행동실험인 T-maze, Elevatedplus-maze와 혈액학적 검사, 혈청생화학적 검사, 병리조직 학적 검사를 관찰한 결과 모든 투여군 및 대조군에서 특이할 만한 임상증상과 체중변화는 관찰되지 않았으며, 폐사 및 빈사 동물은 시험 전 기간을 통하여 발견되지 않았다. 행동실험인 T-maze 결과 MSG 고용량 투여군에서 움직이는 횟수가 감소하다 증가하는 양상을 보였고, Elevatedplus-maze 실험에서는 MSG 고용량 투여군의 Open arm의 출입빈도가 증가하는 등 유의적인 변화가 나타났다. 혈액학적 검사 및 혈청생화학적 검사에서는 대조군과 비교 시 유의적인 변화가 관찰되었지만 그 수치가 정상범위 안에 포함되기 때문에 이상을 나타내지 않았다. 병리조직검사 또한 약간의 염증발생 소견이 나왔지만 정상범위 안에 포함되기 때문에 이상을 나타내지 않았다고 판단했다. 따라서, 어린랫드를 이용한 MSG의 반복투여 독성시험 결과 특이할만한 신체적인 변화는 나타나지 않았으나 고용량의 MSG 투여는 어린랫드에서 인지능력의 저하 및 행동의 불 안을 유발할 가능성이 있다고 사료된다.

하이그로마이신(hygromycin) 저항성 형질전환 동진 벼의 환경위해성 평가 기초자료를 위해 형질전환 벼와 일반 재배 동진 벼에 발생하는 곤충상을 2013년 7월부터 9월까지 조사하고 군집특성을 분석하였다. 형질전환 벼는 경상대학교 LMO(Living genetically Modified Organism) 격리포장 내에서 재배되었고, 일반 재배 동진 벼는 사천시 두량면과 진주시 대곡면에서 재배되었다. 조사기간 동안 LMO 격리포장에서는 총 7목 31과 65종 5,362개체가 채집되었고, 일반재배 벼를 재배하는 두량 1 포장은 총 5목 23과 44종 8,325개체, 두량 2 포장은 총 7목 16과 27종 4,027개체, 대곡 포장에서는 총 9목 30과 54종 4,785개체가 채집되었다. 총 조사된 곤충 종 수와 목 별 개체수의 비율은 딱정벌레목이 각각 29.3%와 88.6%로 가장 높았고, 애넓적물땡땡이(Enochrus simulans (Sharp))는 모든 포장에서 우점종이었다. 포충망을 이용한 쓸어잡기 방법으로 채집된 곤충은 29종으로 유아등 트랩으로 채집된 94종보다 낮았으나, 포장 별 구성종의 개체수 비율은 다양하였다. 전체 곤충 종 군집분석 결과 모든 포장에서 종 다양도가 낮고, 특정 종이 우점하는 등 농생태계 단일 경작지의 특성을 보였다. LMO 격리포장과 동진 벼 3개 포장간 유사도는 차이가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 본 실험결과 형질전환 벼와 비변형 벼에서 향후 환경위해성 평가를 위한 곤충상 조사는 유아등과 포충망 조사를 동시에 이용하는 것이 효과적인 것으로 확인되었다.

Chemical control is the indispensable part of insect pest management. However, due to overuse of pesticides, the emergence of resistance to pests and environmental pollution problems are appeared. In order to solve these problems, the need of integrated pest management (IPM) has emerged. The IPM means that the pest density should be controlled and maintained to avoid any economic loss, also to minimize any side effects to the human beings and environment using appropriate control methods. In order to do successful IPM, sampling plan should be prepared. Sampling plan consists of monitoring, density estimation and decision making of target insect pests in certain crop field including the knowledge of spatial distribution. Tabaco whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, and Western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis, are serious insect pests in paprika greenhouses. We selected two paprika greenhouses with different sizes (12,000 m2 and 4,000 m2). Insect pests monitoring was evaluated from January 24, 2014 to June 27, 2014. Two monitoring methods are used to develop sampling plans, one is visual survey for B. tabaci population, and the other is using sticky trap for F. occidentalis population, respectively. We calculated spatial distribution using Taylor’s Power Law (TPL). In visual survey results, TPL showed that adults and pupae of B. tabaci were aggregated in paprika greenhouses. And in trap survey results, F. occidentalis was also aggregated with different scale of the slope of TPL equation. In density estimation, the more density of insect pests, the less samples were required. Moreover, the more accuracy, the more samples were required for stop sampling in greenhouses. We selected hypothetic action threshold of 0.3 and 5 for decision making. As a result, if the action threshold is increased, the maximum sample number is decreased

Insects reflect climate change dramatically because insects are poikilotherm and have huge biodiversity. Also, the prediction of insect distribution is very significant due to the position of this group giving diverse ecological services including their extraordinary economic importance. Accurate modeling of geographic distributions of insect species is crucial to various applications in ecology and conservation. The best performing techniques often require some parameter tuning, which may be prohibitively time-consuming to do separately for each species, or unreliable for small or biased data sets. The purpose of this study is to introduce and compare several models to predict insect distribution under climate change in Korea. This work would be helpful to researchers or decision makers by giving practical advice, for example, kinds of input/output data, applicability to GIS, to select appropriate model to predict insect distribution.

Model systems, if applied appropriately, give useful and rapid predictions of the potential distribution and population dynamics of the target species. Insect populations are poikilothermal animal and readily applied to model systems in several ways. Classical insect population models are focused on management purposes, for example, prediction of first occurrence period after cold weather season. Insect populations are distributed neither uniformly nor at random, or they are aggregated in patches, or they form gradients of other kinds of spatial structures which are closely related to their natural resources. Thus, developing insect population models should be considered not only with their physiological development and/or occurrence but also with their spatial distributions including their hosts. In this study, we discuss spatial distribution model of insect population with their host in order to future climate change scenario in Korea.

Amur silver grass, Miscanthus sacchariflorus is one of the promising biofuel crops. A damage of noctuid pest, Leucapamea askoldis was firstly observed from Amur silver grass in Hwasun silver grass plantation during the survey of insect pests of Amur silver grass in Iksan, Hwasun, and Sancheong plantation areas in Korea. The host of L. askoldis was not known yet in Korea. Thus, M. sacchariflorus was the first known host in Korea. The L. askoldis damage was observed as larval feeding on newly grown shoots of M. sacchariflorus close to soil surface from early April to early May in 2013. Investigated larval density was 1.6 ± 1.1 per m2 on April 4 and damage rate of shoots was 0.8% ± 0.4 per hundred plants on May 4, 2013. The larvae bore into shoots of M. sacchariflorus and then feed inside of plant. The damaged shoots are easily pulled out and distinguished by the boring hole on the shoots.

Based on climate change scenario, local distribution of insect pest population should be changed in near future as well as their host. Even though well defined insect geographical distribution model is developed and projected its potential establishment in Korea under climate change scenario, it has defectiveness without geographical matching of its host. SADIE (spatial analysis with distance indices) allows improved interpretation of the spatial associations between two populations within a given sampling area because it is designed for data that are distributed in discrete areas with relatively well-defined boundaries, and measures the extent of clustering with subsequent testing for spatial patterns in relationships among sample locations. In this study, we calculated and analyzed the spatial association between the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) of light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana, using CLIMEX, and projected farm land suitability of apple trees for the possibility of shift and matching geographical location of insect-host relationship under climate change scenario in Korea.

썩덩나무노린재(Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)의 발육을 15, 20, 23, 25, 30℃에서 조사하였다. 종령기까지 발육을 완성한 온도는 20℃와 23℃이었다. 20℃와 23℃에서 약충기간은 각각 46.9일과 35.5일이었으며, 1령 기간이 가장 짧고 5령기간이 가장 길었다. 실험에 사용한 최저 온도인 15℃에서는 2령까지, 30℃에서는 4령까지 발육하는 동안에 모든 개체가 사망하였다. 암수 성충의 수명은 20℃에서는 각각 53.6일과 45.3일이었고, 23℃에서는 각각 50.1일과 68.1일이었다. 암컷 당 총 산란수는 20℃에서는 135.8개, 23℃에서 242.9개이었다. 알에서부터 성충우화까지 필요한 평균 적산온도(발육영점온도 13.94℃ 적용)는 20℃와 23℃에서 각각 314.5 일도와 367.8 일도이었다. 그 외에 약충의 각 령기별 발육기간과 사망율, 산란전기간과 산란후기간, 산란횟수별 산란수, 알에서 산란전기간까지의 적산온도 등이 조사되었다.

Thrips palmi Karny was introduced and first recorded in 1993 in Korea. This species has become a serious pest of vegetable and ornamental crops. CLIMEX simulation was applied to T. palmi to predict the potential geographic distribution in Korea under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. In the CLIMEX simulation, ecoclimatic index (EI) was calculated, and compared in each simulated year and each simulated location. The map comparisons showed a good agreement between simulated and present distributions of T. palmi, indicating that the CLIMEX model was well explained and appropriate for prediction of future distributions of this species in Korea. In near future, until a year of 2020, all the western and eastern parts of Korea showed favorable to marginal suitability for T. palmi populations in fields. After the year of 2040, the potential distributions are shifted from no persistent to favorable for establishment and persistence from coastal to interior of the Korean peninsula except a north-eastern interior region which is the northernmost part of high mountains (Baekdu-Daegan) area in South Korea. Based on simulation results, T. palmi would overcome its weather restriction in near future under a severe climate change scenario, thus, pest management measures and strategies should be re-constructed in Korea, with further studies including interspecific competition and understanding ecosystem change due to climate change.

The cotton aphid, Aphis gossypii Glover (Hemiptera: Aphididae), is one of the major insect pests of cucumber, Cucumis sativus L. The spatial distribution and occurrence of Aphis gossypii Glover on greenhouse cucumber, Cucumis sativus L., were studied to provide an efficient and reliable sampling plan for its control. A highly clumped pattern was observed among plants (TPL b = 1.63) within a greenhouse. To develop a sampling plan for visual enumeration, leaves within plants were selected by different percentages of leaves (eg., 3rd and 6th, 6th and 9th leaf,…from the bottom of the plant) and then compared the accuracies and efficiencies by relative net precision (RNP). The results indicated that selecting leaves from the bottom of the plant by systemic sampling methods were relatively high as other sampling methods.

Earth’s average temperature has risen by 0.78°C over the past century, and is projected to rise another 1.1 to 6.4°C over the next hundred years based on recent announced RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Small changes in the average temperature of the planet can translate to large and potentially dangerous shifts in biosphere. Based on climate change scenario, local distribution of well-known species should be changed in near future. Models, if applied appropriately, give useful and rapid predictions of the potential distribution of the target species. CLIMEX is one of modeling systems that may provide insights into the climatic factors that limit the geographical distribution of a species in different parts. Climatic parameters and the climate matching function of CLIMEX enable the risks of an exotic species as well as well-known species to be assessed by directly comparing the climatic condition of a given location with any number of other locations without knowing the full distribution of a species. However, CLIMEX supports only three locations in Korea (Seoul, Pusan and Kangnung province). We generated detail weather database of Korea for CLIMEX, and simulated using the data of American serpentine leafminer, Liriomyza trifolii (Burgess), a key pest and well-known species in Korea for application of future risk assessment under possible climate change condition in Korea.