기후변화에 따른 해충개체군 증감모형은 해충방제를 위 한 초발생예찰과 연속적 해충변동 양상의 파악에 매우 중 요하다. 이러한 예측은 농약사용의 효율성을 높이고, 환경 에 적은 영향을 줄 수 있으므로, 현대 해충방제전략의 화두 로 볼 수 있다. 본 연구는 온도변화에 따른 해충의 농약효과 에 따른 사충률의 변화를 개체군 모형과 결합시켜 모의했다. 감수성 점박이응애를 강낭콩을 기주로 20, 25, 30, 35℃에서 Acrinathrin-Spiromesifen 혼합제와 Azocyclotin 유기주석계 농약에 노출시켰다. 생물검정 결과 점박이응애의 사충률은 온도와 농약의 종류에 따라 유의한 차이가 발생했다. 점박이 응애의 개체군 밀도변동 모의는 DYMEX를 이용했으며, 모 의결과 농약의 종류별로 기후변화에 따른 초기방제 시기와 방제횟수에 차이가 나타날 것으로 예측됐다. 본 연구결과는 미래의 기후변화에 대응한 해충방제 전략과 농약 선발에 있 어 중요한 시사점을 제공할 것으로 사료된다.

The purpose of this study is to set the direction to manage national parks to cope with climate change, and offer basic data to establish the relevant policies. Towards this end, this study analyzed the current and future climate change vulnerability of national parks using the 24 proxy variables of vulnerability in the LCCGIS program, a tool to evaluate climate change vulnerability developed by the National Institute of Environmental Research. To analyze and evaluate the current status of and future prospect on climate change vulnerability of national parks, the proxy variable value of climate exposure was calculated by making a GIS spatial thematic map with 1 km×1 km grid unit through the application of climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The values of proxy variables of sensitivity and adaptation capability were calculated using the basic statistics of national parks. The values of three vulnerability evaluation items were calculated regarding the present (2010s) and future (2050s). The current values were applied to the future equally under the assumption that the current state of the proxy variables related to sensitivity and adaptation capability without a future prediction scenario continues. Seoraksan, Odaesan, Jirisan and Chiaksan National Parks are relatively bigger in terms of the current (2010s) climate exposure. The national park, where the variation of heat wave is the biggest is Wolchulsan National Park. The biggest variation of drought occurs to Gyeryongsan National Park, and Woraksan National Park has the biggest variation of heavy rain. Concerning the climate change sensitivity of national parks, Jirisan National Park is the most sensitive, and adaptation capability is evaluated to be the highest. Gayasan National Park’s sensitivity is the lowest, and Chiaksan National Park is the lowest in adaptation capability. As for climate change vulnerability, Seoraksan, Odaesan, Chiaksan and Deogyusan National Parks and Hallyeohaesang National Park are evaluated as high at the current period. The national parks, where future vulnerability change is projected to be the biggest, are Jirisan, Woraksan, Chiaksan and Sobaeksan National Parks in the order. Because such items evaluating the climate change vulnerability of national parks as climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capability show relative differences according to national parks’ local climate environment, it will be necessary to devise the adaptation measures reflecting the local climate environmental characteristics of national parks, rather than establishing uniform adaptation measures targeting all national parks. The results of this study that evaluated climate change vulnerability using climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capability targeting Korea’s national parks are expected to be used as basic data for the establishment of measures to adapt to climate change in consideration of national parks’ local climate environmental characteristics. However, this study analyzed using only the proxy variables presented by LCCGIS program under the situation that few studies on the evaluation of climate change vulnerability of national parks are found, and therefore this study may not reflect overall national parks’ environment properly. A further study on setting weights together with an objective review on more proper proxy variables needs to be carried out in order to evaluate the climate change vulnerability of national parks.

북한의 산림 황폐화는 매우 심각한 것으로 보고되고 있으 며, 이를 해결하기 위해 황폐화 방지와 온실가스 감축을 목 표로 한 REDD+ 사업에 대한 관심이 높아지고 있다. 본 연 구에서는 북한 황해북도에서 10,000 ha를 대상지에 대해 다 중시기 토지피복 변화를 분석하였다. 연구 대상지의 산림 황 폐화는 계속 심해져, 1989년 7,035 ha로부터 2013년 4,293 ha로 약 39%가 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 그에 따라 산림 탄소축적량은 약 284,399 tCO2 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 기 준선을 설정하고 REDD+ 사업에 의한 산림탄소 감소방지 량 (온실가스배출감축량)을 분석한 결과 약 364,704 tCO2가 감소하지 않고 유지될 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 현장조사 수행이 불가능한 한계점과 단위면적 (ha)당 산림탄소축적량 을 이용할 시 북한의 수종 재적 자료가 없는 제한 하에 남한 의 자료를 사용한 한계는 향후 극복하여야 할 과제라고 판 단된다. 그러나 본 연구는 향후 북한에서 REDD+ 사업을 위 해 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

On account of the increase in water demand and climate change, droughts are in great concern for water resources planning and management. In this study, rainfall characteristics with stationary and non-stationary perspectives were analyzed using Weibull distribution model with 40-year records of annual minimum rainfall depth collected in major cities of Korea. As a result, the non-stationary minimum probable rainfall was expected to decrease, compared with the stationary probable rainfall. The reliability of ξ1, a variable reflecting the decrease of the minimum rainfall depth due to climate change, in Wonju, Daegu, and Busan was over 90%, indicating the probability that the minimal rainfall depths in those city decrease is high.

In this study, rainfall characteristics with stationary and non-stationary perspectives were analyzed using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Gumbel distribution models with rainfall data collected in major cities of Korea to reevaluate the return period of sewer flooding in those cities. As a result, the probable rainfall for GEV and Gumbel distribution in non-stationary state both increased with time(t), compared to the stationary probable rainfall. Considering the reliability of ξ1, a variable reflecting the increase of storm events due to climate change, the reliability of the rainfall duration for Seoul, Daegu, and Gwangju in the GEV distribution was over 90%, indicating that the probability of rainfall increase was high. As for the Gumbel distribution, Wonju, Daegu, and Gwangju showed the higher reliability while Daejeon showed the lower reliability than the other cities. In addition, application of the maximum annual rainfall change rate (ξ1·t) to the location parameter made possible the prediction of return period by time, therefore leading to the evaluation of design recurrence interval.

This study aims to offer basic data to effectively preserve and manage pine forests using more precise pine forests’ distribution status. In this regard, this study predicts the geographical distribution change of pine forests growing in South Korea, due to climate change, and evaluates the spatial distribution characteristics of pine forests by age. To this end, this study predicts the potential distribution change of pine forests by applying the MaxEnt model useful for species distribution change to the present and future climate change scenarios, and analyzes the effects of bioclimatic variables on the distribution area and change by age. Concerning the potential distribution regions of pine forests, the pine forests, aged 10 to 30 years in South Korea, relatively decreased more. As the area of the region suitable for pine forest by age was bigger, the decreased regions tend to become bigger, and the expanded regions tend to become smaller. Such phenomena is conjectured to be derived from changing of the interaction of pine forests by age from mutual promotional relations to competitive relations in the similar climate environment, while the regions suitable for pine forests’ growth are mostly overlap regions. This study has found that precipitation affects more on the distribution of pine forests, compared to temperature change, and that pine trees’ geographical distribution change is more affected by climate’s extremities including precipitation of driest season and temperature of the coldest season than average climate characteristics. Especially, the effects of precipitation during the driest season on the distribution change of pine forests are irrelevant of pine forest’s age class. Such results are expected to result in a reduction of the pine forest as the regions with the increase of moisture deficiency, where climate environment influencing growth and physiological responses related with drought is shaped, gradually increase according to future temperature rise. The findings in this study can be applied as a useful method for the prediction of geographical change according to climate change by using various biological resources information already accumulated. In addition, those findings are expected to be utilized as basic data for the establishment of climate change adaptation policies related to forest vegetation preservation in the natural ecosystem field.

This study aims to empirically analyze the relationship between climate change elements and catch amount of coastal fisheries, which is predicted to be vulnerable to climate change since its business scale is too small and fishing ground is limited. Using panel data from 1974 to 2013 by region, we tested the relationship between the sea temperature, salinity and the coastal fisheries production. A spatial panel model was applied in order to reflect the spatial dependence of the ocean. The results indicated that while the upper(0-20m) sea temperature and salinity have no significant influence on the coastal fisheries production, the lower(30-50m) sea temperature has significant positive effects on it and, by extension, on the neighboring areas’s production. Therefore, with sea temperature forecast data derived from climate change scenarios, it is expected that these results can be used to assess the future vulnerability to the climate change.

본 연구는 생태적 지위 모형을 이용하여 붉가시나무의 현존 및 잠재 분포도를 작성하고, RCP 8.5 시 나리오를 적용하여 미래의 분포 변화를 예측하기 위해 수행하였다. 이를 위해 5년에 걸쳐 수집된 NFI(National Forest Inventory) 자료에서 조사지점 별 붉가시나무의 풍부도 자료를 추출하여 사용하 였고, 생태적 지위 모형의 일종인 GARP(Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production)를 이용하여 붉 가시나무의 분포에 영향을 미치는 환경변수의 선정을 통해 잠재분포도를 작성하였다. 분석 결과, 붉가 시나무의 현존 분포는 전라남도 해안 및 도서지역, 경상북도, 제주도에 국한되어 출현하였고, 상대적으 로 제주도 서귀포와 전라남도 완도 지역에 출현 개체수가 많은 것으로 나타났다. 최종적으로 작성된 붉 가시나무 잠재분포모형의 평가 통계량인 AUC(Area Under Curve)는 0.93으로 높은 모형의 적합도를 보였다. 작성된 모형에서 1월 평균기온의 AUC가 가장 높은 것으로 나타나 기후변화 시나리오의 1월 평 균기온 상승에 따라 2090년대에는 강원도 고산지역을 제외한 전 지역에서 생육이 가능한 것으로 분석 되었다. 현재의 기후변화 양상을 감안한다면 붉가시나무는 향후 기후변화 환경 하에서 주요 수종의 하 나로서 잠재적 가치가 있는 것으로 판단되었다.

본 연구에서는 환경부 지정 멸종위기 2급 식물로 알려져 있는 한국의 고유종인 선제비꽃을 대상으로 기후변화 조건 에서 수분, 유기물, 광을 처리하였을 때 각 환경에서 두 종의 생육 반응에 대한 변화를 알아보고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 온실을 CO2를 공급한 처리구와 공급하지 않은 대조구로 나누었다. 그리고 두 구역 내에 각각 수분을 100%, 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%로 처리한 수분구배, 유기물을 20%, 15%, 10%, 5%, 0%로 처리한 유기물구배, 그리고 광을 100%, 70%, 30% 로 처리한 광 구배를 설정하고 각 환경에서 2014 년 9월부터 2015년 6월까지 재배하였다. 그 결과, 선제비꽃 의 잎 수는 수분구배의 경우, CO2를 처리하였을 때 100%와 30%에서 가장 많았다. 고사율은 대조구에서 수분 90% 유 기물 10%, 20%, 광 20%, 70%에서, 처리구에서는 수분 70%, 90% 유기물 0%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 광100%에서 가장 높았다. 이 결과는 지구온난화가 가속화 될 경우, 선제비꽃 의 경우 수분의 양에 따라 생육반응이 크게 변할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 게다가 수분과 유기물을 처리하였을 때는 선제비꽃이 처리구에서 더 많이 고사하였으나 광을 처리하 였을 때는 감소하여, 기후변화가 지속될 경우 수분이 충분 히 공급되는 수환경에서 광량이 낮아질수록 더 잘 생존할 것으로 판단된다.

본 연구에서는 외국에서 국내로 도입한 외래종인 종지나 물을 대상으로 기후변화 조건에서 수분, 유기물, 광을 처리 하여 이에 따른 생육 반응에 대한 변화를 알아보고자 하였 다. 이를 위하여 온실을 CO2를 공급한 처리구와 공급하지 않은 대조구로 나누었다. 그리고 두 구역 내에 각각 수분을 100%, 90%, 70%, 50%, 30%로 처리한 수분구배, 유기물을 20%, 15%, 10%, 5%, 0%로 처리한 유기물구배, 그리고 광을 100%, 70%, 30% 로 처리한 광 구배를 설정하고 각 환경에서 2014년 9월부터 2015년 6월까지 재배하였다. 그 결과 종지나물의 잎 수는 대조구 광 구배의 경우, 30%에서 가장 높았다. 개화율은 처리구 수분90%, 유기물 5%, 20%, 광 70%에서, 대조구에서는 수분 70%, 유기물 0%, 15%, 광 100%에서 가장 높았다. 고사율은 대조구에서 수분 30%, 유기물 0%, 5%, 15%, 광 100%에서, 처리구에서는 수분 30%, 유기물 20%, 광 100%에서 가장 높았다. 발아한 종지 나물의 유식물 수는 대조구에서 367개체, 처리구에서 585 개체였다. 이 결과를 종합해 보면, 종지나물의 잎 수는 대조 구에서 광이 낮아질수록 더 많았으나 처리구에서는 차이가 나타나지 않았으며, 지상부 높이는 각 구배에서 대조구와 처리구 모두 유사한 증감 패턴을 보였다. 또한 번식생태학 적 반응을 살펴보면 대조구가 처리구보다 꽃도 더 많이 피 고 종자도 더 많이 생산하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 종자 발아는 처리구가 대조구보다 더 활발히 일어났다. 환경구배 별로, 수분과 유기물의 처리는 종지나물의 생육반응 및 번 식생태학적 반응에 영향을 주지 않았으나 광을 달리 처리하 였을 때는 크게 영향을 미치는 것으로 보인다. 이러한 자료 는 한반도 내 기후변화가 지속적으로 일어날 경우, 국내 외 래종의 생태적 지위 변화에 대응하기 위한 기초자료로 이용 할 수 있을 것으로 예측된다.

본 연구는 기후 변화와 토양 내 질소가 은단풍과 족제비 싸리의 생장에 어떻게 영향을 미치는지 알아보는 것에 목적 을 두었다. 환경구배는 야외환경인 대조구와 대조구 보다 온도를 상승시킨 온도처리구 그리고 CO2 농도와 온도를 상승시킨 기후변화처리구로 나누었다. 각 환경 내에서 질소 구배는 은단풍에 질소비료를 0g,2g,20g(N1,N2,N3)처리하였 고 족제비싸리는 0g,1g,5g(n1,n2,n3) 처리한 후, 신지 (current branch)의 길이와 직경 그리고 잎의 길이와 폭을 측정 하였다. 그 결과, 환경에 따른 영향은 은단풍의 경우 N1일 때 잎의 길이와 폭이 온도처리구에서 가장 잘 자랐으 며, N2일 때는 모든 측정항목이 온도처리구에서 잘 자랐으 며, N3일 때는 신지의 직경이 대조구에서 가장 잘 자랐다. 족제비싸리의 경우 환경에 따른 영향을 받지 않았다. 질소 에 따른 영향을 확인한 결과 은단풍은 온도처리구와 기후변 화 처리구에서 영향을 받지 않았으나 대조구에서 N3의 신 지 길이가 가장 잘 자랐으며, 족제비싸리의 경우 질소 농도 에 따른 차이 없었다. 결과적으로, 은단풍은 현재 환경보다 온도가 상승되거나 토양 내 어느 정도 질소가 있을 경우 잘 자랄 것으로 예측되나, 족제비싸리는 기후변화와 토양 내 질소에 따른 생육의 차이가 나타나지 않을 것으로 판단 된다.

We describe an early angiosperm and a leaf mine ichnofossil from the Lower Cretaceous Potomac Group of Virginia, USA. The descriptions are based on a fossil leaf that was first reported in 1895 but identified as a fragment of a fossil fern. Leaf architectural features and sedimentological context indicate that this leaf was produced by an herbaceous eudicot angiosperm, possibly associated with Ranunculales. The leaf mine is a full depth linear-blotch mine with frass, a trace of puparium inside the blotch mine section, and feeding/oviposition-related puncture marks. The features of the mine are most consistent with those produced by agromyzid flies. This fossil extends the record of agromyzid flies by about 40 million years ago. This fossil provides evidence that agromyzid flies or their ancestors were feeding on herbaceous basal eudicots similar to modern herbaceous ranunculids during the Early Cretaceous, prior to the appearance and diversification of asterids. Our finding contradicts the previous hypotheses on the dipteran radiations associated with the past environmental changes. Insect feeding damages remained in fossilized leaves are currently considered as an important source for climate change studies. We review progresses in the study of the insect feeding trace fossils and their usefulness for monitoring environmental changes.

Climate change by global warming is predicted to affect on public health including increasing incidence of vector borne diseases. Vector borne diseases are transmitted by arthropod vectors, such as mosquitoes, chigger mites and ticks, and are highly sensitive to climate changes. The surveillance and R&D of infectious disease vectors are becoming important for climate change preparedness in Korea. So far, 10 regional vector surveillance centers (Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, Chungnam, Jeonbuk, Jeonnam, Gyeongbuk, Gyeongnam, and Jeju) have been established to monitor vectors and their pathogens against endemic diseases (japanese encephalitis, malaria, scrub typhus and SFTS) and imported diseases (dengue fever, west nile fever and yellow fever). The information on geographical distribution as well as real-time monitoring of vectors and their pathogens will be presented by this surveillance system, ‘VectorNet’. The R&D plan on vectors and their pathogens is now discussing in government-wide R&D committee on infectious diseases. The R&D areas will be included: 1) establishment of nationwide monitoring system, 2) study on biological and molecular characteristics, 3) development of vector identification and pathogen diagnosis methods, 4) development of vector control techniques, 5) management and conservation of vector resources.

This study aimed to analyze the relationship between sea surface temperature as a climatic element and catch amount of offshore and coastal fisheries in Korea using annual time series data from 1970 to 2013. It also tried to predict the future changes in catch amount of fisheries by climate change. Time series data on variables were estimated to be non-stationary from unit root tests, but one long-term equilibrium relation between variables was found from a cointegration test. The result of Granger causality test indicated that the sea surface temperature would cause directly changes in catch amount of offshore and coastal fisheries. The result of regression analysis on sea surface temperature and catch amount showed that the sea surface temperature would have negative impacts on the catch amount of offshore and coastal fisheries. Therefore, if the sea surface temperature would increase, all other things including the current level of fishing effort being equal, the catch amount of offshore and coastal fisheries was predicted to decrease.

Araneae species are predators in natural ecosystem interact with various prey species. These linkage can be affected under climate change because species react not just individually but systematically. We focused on potential impact of climate change in Araneae fauna in national scale. In this study, potential species richness of Araneae in South Korea was predicted with MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model. Korea Forest Research Institute conducted national scale research of wandering arthropods. They monitored in uniformly set 366 points, and the data contain exact GPS points of study sites. Occurrence data were extracted from Prediction of Distribution and Abundance of Forest Spiders According to Climate Scenario (Korea Forest Research Institute, 2013). With the report, dominant 21 Araneae species that appeared more than 10% study sites were selected to estimate species richness. Training climate data were prepared from observation source of Korea Meteorological Administration. RCP 8.5 scenario data which represent future (2050, 2070) climate condition were downloaded from WORLDCLIM web site. In MaxEnt simulation, occurrence data for 21 species and 19 bioclimatic variables were used. Because the model outputs are expressed in index, the minimum training presence threshold rule was applied to distinguish presence/absence of each 21 species distribution model. We overlaid whole 21 thresholded output to get species richness map. The fluctuation between current and future species richness was calculated to observe changing trend in national scale. The results of Araneae fauna tends to move higher altitude and latitude. Species richness of lowlands is predicted to be diminished, but higher mountains are expected to be more suitable for many spider species. In some South Western coastal areas showed reduced richness in 2050 but will recover in 2070.

Thc climate change has the potential to significantly modify the actual distribution of insect pest with unknown consequences on agricultural systems and management strategies. In this study, Thrips palmi Karny was selected to predict distribution under climate change. T. palmi was introduced and first recorded in 1993 in Korea, and has become a serious pest of vegetable and ornamental crops. The MaxEnt was applied to T. palmi to predict its potential geographic distribution in Korea and Japan under the RCP 8.5 climate changing scenario. The MaxEnt software package is one of the most popular tools for species distribution and environmental niche modeling. The habitat prediction model of T. palmi in Korea was validated by the distribution of T. palmi in Japan. Based on the MaxEnt modeling, T. palmi would expand their potential distribution to whole Korean peninsula except the alpine region in Gangwon-do and Yanggang-do and Hamgyeongbuk-do in 2070s. Therefore, the monitoring system and management strategy for T. palmi should be reconsidered and re-evaluated.