이 연구는 한국 유가증권시장 기업을 대상으로 중국 위안/달러 환율변동에 의한 환노출을 추정하고 그 특성을 분석한다. 한국 유가증권시장 기업은 위안/달러 환율이 상승(하락)하면 기업가치가 감소(증가)하는 환위험에 노 출되어 있다. 분석 기업의 위안/달러 환노출은 원/달러 환노출보다 큰 것으로 나타나고 있다. 위안/달러 환율변 동과 한국 달러기준 수출가격 변동의 관계로부터 추정한 마크업 조정 계수는 위안/달러 환노출이 위안/달러 환율 변동에 따른 한국 기업의 수출가격 조정과 관련이 있음을 보여준다. 위안/달러 환노출이 원/달러 환노출보다 크 게 나타나고 있다는 이 연구의 결과는 한국 기업들이 위안/달러 환노출에 보다 많은 관심을 가질 필요가 있음을 시사하고 있다.

환율의 변동은 기업가치에 영향을 줄 수 있다. 기업이 타인자본을 사용하지 않는 다면 주가를 기준으로 추정한 환노출은 자기자본 가치의 변화만을 반영한다. 그러나 기업이 타인자본을 사용하는 경우라면 환노출에는 부채의 영향이 반영되어 부채를 사용하지 않는 경우에 비해 환노출이 확대 또는 축소되어 나타날 수 있다. 이 연구에서는 기업의 부채사용과 환노출 간의 관계를 분석한다. 부채의 사용이 환노출에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위해 ‘환노출 의 부채레버리지 효과’ 가설을 설정한다. 분석 결과 환율의 급격한 변동이 있었던 글로벌금융위기를 포함한 기간 (2006년∼2010년)에서는 부채 사용에 따른 환노출 레버리지효과 가설을 지지하는 결과를 확인하였다. 즉, 부채의 의존도가 높은 기업의 경우 환노출이 증가하였다. 그러나 글로벌금융위기 이후 기간(2011년∼2015년)에서는 환노출 레버리지효과를 지지할 수 있는 결과가 나타나지 않았다. 이 연구의 분석 결과는 금융위기와 같이 환율이 급변하는 기간에는 부채를 많이 사용하는 기업의 경우 환노출의 급격한 증가 가능성을 고려해야 함을 시사한다.

The present study addresses the tea utensils and tea drinking methods seen in tomb mural paintings of Song, Liao, Jin, and Yuan, which were Koryo’s foreign exchange countries. The paintings illustrate the pointing tea method, which was popular during dynasty times. Tea utensils observed in the paintings include a tea mill, mill stone, and tea pestle necessary for making cake tea into powder. The tea stove and boiling bottle are depicted as being required to boil water. Some mural works vividly depict how a tea drinker pours hot water from a boiling bottle into a cup with a stand, mixes it with a tea spoon, and whisks tea powder for foaming with a tea whisk. The tea drinking method of the Southern race Han is also similarly described in the tomb mural paintings of Liao, Jin, and Yuan from Northern nomads. The distribution of tea culture had an enormous influence on the development of tea utensil manufacturing methods. The significance of this study is that these findings can be used as basic data to provide food culture insights into Koryo celadon tea utensils.

This study is on the alcohol beverage utensils represented on the Chinese tomb mural paintings of Song, Liao, Jin, and Yuan those countries had foreign exchange with Koryo Dynasty. These mural paintings are distributed in the areas such as Hebei, Henan, Inner mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Peijing. etc. The Alcohol beverage vessels were classified mainly into storage vessel, pouring vessel, drinking vessel and ladles according to the purpose. The storage vessels of Song, Liao and Jin were called Jiuping, Jingping, Jiuzun as well as Meiping. Pouring vessels are basically one set of Zhuzi, Wenwan and Jiuzhu, or Zhuhu and Zhuwan. On the mural paintings of Yuan Dynasty, Meiping as storage vessels disappear, and a variety of shapes of pouring vessels such as Mayu and Yuhuchunping appear. This trend indirectly indicates the new arrival of distilled liquor, which seems to have affected transition of the alcohol beverage utensils.

International capital movement has made progress at global liberalization of finance and foreign exchange, international monetary norm changing into floating exchange rate system, easiness of collection of information and trade at improvement of information communication technology from early of 1970's. Results of empirical test for relation between foreign exchange rate or various determination factors of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. First, according to relation between foreign exchange rate and interest rate, correlation for each of variables after OECD entrance is increased. 'But, long-term & short-term interest rate is affected by Hanbo & Kia's bankruptcy, continuous large scale coporates bankruptcy and crisis of foreign exchange. Therefore, financial instability is occured. If portfolio investment fund has been inflow as it is mollified by continuous shortage of foreign exchange and fall of country's credit rating, it is expected to have positive effect for long-term & short-term interest rate from appreciation of won against dollar. Second, results from relation between determination factor of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. If surplus of current account and goods account is continued, yield of corporate bond is to be stable. But, margin of surplus is expected to diminish after second quarter 98, and difference between external and domestic interest (after adjusting foreign exchange rate) is to be diminished. And if net inflows of foreign investor's fund (stock and bond) is diminished, it is to have negative effect for yield of corporate bond. According to foreign investor's investment movement of previous years, hedge fund were stayed at least during two years in Mexico. It means that sudden capital outflow is not to be happened at Korea.

International capital movement has made progress at global liberalization of finance and foreign exchange, international monetary norm changing into floating exchange rate system, easiness of collection of information and trade at improvement of information communication technology from early of 1970's. Results of empirical test for relation between foreign exchange rate or various determination factors of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. First, according to relation between foreign exchange rate and interest rate, correlation for each of variables after OECD entrance is increased. But, long-term ＆short-term interest rate is affected by Hanbo ＆ Kia's bankruptcy, continuous large scale coporates bankruptcy and crisis of foreign exchange. Therefore, financial instability is occured. If portfolio investment fund has been inflow as it is mollified by continuous shortage of foreign exchange and fall of country's credit rating, it is expected to have positive effect for long-term & short-term interest rate from appreciation of won against dollar. Second, results from relation between determination factor of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. If surplus of current account and goods account is continued, yield of corporate bond is to be stable. But, margin of surplus is expected to diminish after second quarter 98, and difference between external and domestic interest (after adjusting foreign exchange rate) is to be diminished. And if net inflows of foreign investor's fund (stock and bond) is diminished, it is to have negative effect for yield of corporate bond. According to foreign investor's investment movement of previous years, hedge md were stayed at least during two years in Mexico. It means that sudden capital outflow is not to be happened at Korea. But if external factors from depreciation of yen and China's renminbi are instable, interest rate is expected to increase from capital's outflows. Third, if it is to decrease instability of foreign exchange rate from increase in surplus of future current account, credit rating's upwardness, stability of yen and renminbi, foreign exchange rate is expected to be stable. It is expected to have continuous stability from short-term interest rate to long-term interest rate in this empirical test.

선물환율이 미래현물환율의 물편추정치가 되지 못하는 것은 시장의 기대가 비합리적이거나 위험할증이 존재하기 때문인 것으로 알려져 있다. 본고는 위험할증의 존재여부, 위험할증의 성격, 위험할증이 선물편의에 미치는 영향 등을 밝힌다. 먼저 GARCH, GARCH-M, EGARCH, A GARCH, GJR 모형을 추정하여 EGARCH모형을 제외한 모형은 부적합함을 보인다. 이에 따라 EGARCH 모형을 통해 도출한 위험할증에 중격을 가하여 선물편의가 위험할증 충격에 큰 쪽으로 장기에 걸쳐 영향받음을 밝힌다.

본 연구는 한국자동차산업이 환율변동에 어떻게 영향을 받는지, 주요 수출시장에서 한국의 자동차회사들이 환율변동에 어떻게 전략적으로 반응하는지 실증적 분석을 통하여 알아보았다. 실증분석에 의하면 한국자동차회사들의 주가와 수출은 기대했던 것과 다리 원달러 환율보다 엔달러 환율에 보다 민감하게 반응하는 것을 나타났다. 이는 한국자동차회사들이 외화표시채무와 해외로부터의 원자재조달 등으로 많은 달러화표시 현금유출을 가지고 있는 한편 일본자동차회사들과 주요 자동차시장에서 경쟁하기 때문인 것으로 해석해볼 수 있다. 추가적으로 한국자동차회사들이 원달러 환율의 유리한 변동을 기회로 이용할 만큼 충분한 차별화 능력을 갖추고있지 않는 것으로도 해석되었다. 엔달러 환율 변동에 대한 민감한 반응은 일본자동차회사들과 주요 수출시장에서 치열한 경쟁을 벌이고 있을 뿐만 아니라 일본자동차회사들이 환율변동을 전략적 기회로 적극 이용하고 있기 때문인 것으로 해석되었다. 미국시장에서 시장점유율의 변동과 판매가격의 변동을 환율변동과 결부하여 봄으로써 한국자동차회사들이 주요수출시장에서 환율변동에 어떻게 전략적으로 대응하는가를 알아보았다. 시장점유율은 엔달러 환율과 음의 상관관계를 보이고 있는데 이는 미국시장에서 일본자동차회사들과 치열한 경쟁이 벌어지며 일본자동차 회사들이 환율변동을 적극적으로 전략적 기회로 이용한다는 의미로 해석해볼 수 있다. 그러나 원달러 환율과도 음의 상관관계를 보여 원화가치의 하락이 경쟁력을 높이고 시장점유율을 높일 것이라는 기대와 상반된 결과를 보여주고 있다. 이러한 결과는 차별화능력의 부족으로 원화가치의 하락이 수출시장에서 한국 자동차회사들의 경쟁력을 높이지 못하고있다는 의미로 해석해볼 수 있다. 한편 판매가격은 환율변동과 뚜렷한 관계를 보이지 않고 있는데 이는 가격결정에 영향을 미치는 다른 요인들 때문에 환율변동과 판매가격의 관계가 뚜렷이 나타나지 않다는 의미로 해석해볼 수 있다.

본 연구에서는 기업특성변수와 환위험관리 행태가 기업성과에 미치는 영향에 대해 실증분석을 실시해 보았다. 분석 결과, 외화부채비율, 수출비중과 같은 기업특성변수는 국내기업의 회계적인 외환손익에 주요한 영향을 미치는 반면, 전반적인 환위험 인식 수준, 포지션 파악의 정확도, 환위험관리 기법수와 같은 환위험관리 행태 변수는 총자산성장률, 총자산수익률과 같은 기업성과에 유의적인 정(+)의 영향을 미치고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 환위험관리 수준이 높을수륵 기업성과가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 연구 결과는 환위험관리가 현금흐름의 변동성을 감소시켜 기업가치를 증대시키며, 따라서 기업가치를 증대시키기 위해서는 보다 적극적으로 환위험을 ?징할 필요가 있다는 선행연구와 일치하는 것이다. 이에, 앞으로 한국기업은 환위험에 대한 인식 수준을 제고하고, 외환 포지션을 정확하게 파악하기 위해 노력하여야 할 것이며, 이를 기초로 다양한 기법을 활용하여 환위험을 적절히 관리하여야 할 것이다. 아울러, 정부와 학계는 환위험관리 기법에 관한 홍보와 교육을 강화하고, 환위험관리 기법을 제공할 수 있는 외환 ·금융시장의 국제화, 선진화를 위한 노력을 경주하여야 할 것이다.

This study examines foreign exchange exposure of Korean manufacturing firms. The variation among firms in their exposure levels was explained with respect to the variation in the supposedly relevant firm specific characteristics. When the impact of exchange rate changes on the individual firms` stock returns is estimated in the multi-factor market model, 21 firms, 10% of the all firms in the sample, show significant(at 10%) exposure to won-dollar exchange rates while 10 firms, 5% of the sample firms, show significant exposure to yen-dollar exchange rates. It was hypothesized that a firm`s size, the proportion of exports to total sales, leverage ratio, and the proportion of foreign currency denominated debt out of total debt are the relevant firm specific characteristics for explaining the variation in the level of foreign exchange exposure among manufacturing firms. The regression models were estimated in the two subperiods, from January 1987 to December 1991, and from January 1992 to December 1996. The two subperiods differ in the degree of the capital market and foreign exchange market liberalization. The estimated results differ significantly between the two subperiods, and between the two exchange rates. The results indicate that some firm specific characteristics are significant in explaining the variation in the levels of foreign exchange exposure of individual firms. The discrepancies in the estimated coefficient structures between the two subperiods may represent any structural breaks. But some possible measurement problems necessitate further research for concrete conclusions.

환노출과 재무부실과의 관계를 분석하기 위해 환노출과 기업의 재무부실의 관계를 Logit 모형을 이용하여 92년에서 98년 10월까지 기간에 상장 제조기업을 대상으로 분석하였다. 전체기간 분석에서는 환노출 계수가 유의적이지 않았으나 98년 1월에서 10월 사이에 재무부실이 발생한 기업을 대상으로 한 분석에서는 환노출이 재무부실을 예측하는 유의적인 변수로 나타났다. 분석결과 원/달러 환율 상승이 기업가치의 하락을 가져오는 음(-)의 방향의 환노출이 크게 나타난 기업의 재무부실 가능성이 높았다. 환율 변동 방향을 구분하여 추정한 환노출을 이용하여 분석한 결과 환율의 상승시에 나타나는 환노출이 재무부실 발생과 관련이 있는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이러한 분석 결과는 환노출이 재무부실의 예측에 중요한 요인이 되고 있음을 의미하는 것으로 기업의 재무부실 비용을 줄이기 위해 환위험 혜지가 필요하다는 기존의 분석적 연구 결과를 지지하는 것이다.

본고의 연구목적은 한국의 국제기업이 실무상에서 환위험관리를 위해 환율예측에 과도히 의존하고 있는 현실에 착안하여 그러한 관행이 외환포트폴리오 관리차원으로 발전할 수 있다면 과연 유효성을 확보할 수 있을 것인가를 실증적으로 분석하는 데 있다. 실증분석결과 통계적 환율예측 방법을 동원하여 최적 외환포트폴리오를 구성하고 적절하게 관리한다면 ① 표본평균을 미래환율에 대한 예측치로 이용하는 경우나,② 환율변동의 무작위성을 가정하고 ±1σ 범위내에서 난수를 발생시켜 예측치로 이용하는 경우보다 제한적이긴 하나 그 사후적 성과가 개선될 수 있으며, 구조변동기 등에도 충격을 흡수할 수 있게 해준다는 것을 알 수 있다. 그러므로 기업의 환위험관리에 있어 순수한 위험회피 전략, 그리고 단일통화를 대상으로 환율예측에 의존하는 환위험관리 등의 관행은 비합리적이며, 외환포트폴리오를 관리함으로써 최소의 위험부담하에서 최대의 수익률을 확보할 수 있도록 환위험 관리전략이 수정되어야 할 것이다.

This study aims to identify and analyze the factors that affect foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia. We consider the variables of external debt, exchange rate, inflation, and exports as explanatory factors referring to previous studies. We apply the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach to time-series data retrieved from the Central Bank of Indonesia (BI), the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), and International Monetary Funds (IMF) from January 2016 to December 2018. Our results show that foreign debt, exchange rates, inflation, and exports significantly affect the simultaneous fluctuation of foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia. Partially, foreign debt has a significant and positive effect on foreign exchange reserves. The exchange rate has a significant and negative effect on foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia. However, our findings explain that inflation does not significantly affect foreign exchange reserves in Indonesia, and exports have a significant and positive effect on foreign exchange reserves. This study is expected to be useful to policymakers in managing foreign exchange reserves, so the economy of Indonesia can grow sustainably. One of the exciting things in this study lies in the model that uses the Autoregressive Distributed Log, which can explain long-term relationships through adjusted coefficient and cointegration tests.

The study aims to investigate the pattern of relationships such as symmetric or asymmetric, between exchange rate and foreign direct investment in Bangladesh by applying Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL. In this study, we employed quarterly data for the period of 1974Q1 to 2016Q4. Data were collected and aggregated from various sources namely, Bangladesh Economic Review published by Ministry of Finance and statistical yearbook published by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and an annual report published by Bangladesh Bank. The relationship between exchange rate and FDI inflows attract immense interest in the recent periods, especially for developing countries’ perspective. The results of the study ascertain the long run relationship between FDI, exchange rate, monetary policy, and fiscal policy. Considering the asymmetric assumption, the findings from NARDL confirm the existence of a long-run asymmetric relationship in the empirical equation. In the long run, it is observed that positive change that is the appreciation of exchange rate against USD decrease FDI inflows and negative shocks results in grater inflows of FDI, however, the positive shocks produce higher intensity that negative shocks in Exchange rate. For directional causality, the coefficients of error correction term confirm long-run causality, in particular, bidirectional causality unveiled between FDI and exchange rate.

Forfeiture is a property punishment that deprives a crime-related property for the purpose of preventing the repetition of a crime or preventing it from profiting from the crime. In addition, Confiscation is a Judicial disposition to pay for the whole or part of the forfeitured object if it can not be forfeitured. Article 48 of the Korean Penal Code stipulates forfeiture and confiscation, and stipulates arbitrary. However, Article 134 of the Criminal Code (money to be paid to a bribe or bribe received by a criminal or a third person who knows the criminal in bribery), Article 206 of the Criminal Code (opium, opium, morphine), Article 357 (3) of the Penal Code (the property acquired by the criminal) and many special laws require forfeiture and confiscation as essential. In regard to such general forfeiture and confiscation, the Supreme Court refers to the forfeiture and confiscation in some special act as ‘disciplinary forfeiture and confiscation’ for the purpose of punishing without aiming at the deprivation of profits in light of the purpose of the legislation and the purpose of the legislation. and in the case of ‘disciplinary forfeiture and confiscation’, it acknowledges the collective responsibility of confiscation. In this article, I will review critically on what the Supreme Court has called ‘disciplinary confiscation’ for the forfeiture and confiscation of foreign exchange transaction act, and examine the problems of collective responsibility of confiscation.

The study examines the magnitude of economic spillover and the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on the efficiency of the bank industry in China. This study employs unit root tests, cointegration tests and cointegrating regression analysis, including fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) and dynamic OLS (DOLS) to test the proposed hypotheses. The sample is restricted to the period of time in which monthly data is available and comparable among variables for the period from January 2002 to October 2013 (142 observations). All of the time series data was collected and retrieved from the People’s Bank of China, China Monthly Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, and International Financial Statistics database from International Monetary Fund. The results of the Johansen cointegration test suggest that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between FDI inflows, foreign exchange rate and banks performance in China. The results of cointegrating regression analysis using FMOLS, CCR and DOLS suggest that M2 supply and FDI inflows are significant at the 0.01 level. The results confirm that FDI inflows in the banking sector are positively related to the increase of banks productivity and performance and short-term loans in China. However, the results suggest that Chinese Yuan currency exchange rate to U.S. dollar is not significant in the banking and financial industry of China.