Under increased complexity and uncertainty of overseas construction projects, it is important for construction companies to improve their own project risk management capabilities instead of risk-taking strategies to secure competitiveness in the overseas construction market. Although most of the risks occur in project execution stage, many previous studies focused on planning stage including risk identification and analysis among PRM process. Therefore, this study aims to verify the effectiveness of whole PRM process during project execution stage through empirical study on participants of overseas construction projects. As the result it was found that first, the factor directly affects the project success is the execution process of PRM. It implies that appropriate actions such as appointing charged manager for risks, timely implementation of responding plan, continuous risk monitoring and updating established plan are the key for contribution to the project success. Second, the importance of communication in PRM is also found, which is not conducted at a specific but throughout the entire PRM process and need to be managed as essential factor for successful PRM..

The decommissioning project of NPP is a large-scale project, with various risks. Successful implementation of the project requires appropriate identification and management of risks. IAEA considered risk management “To maximize opportunities and to minimize threats by providing a framework to control risk at all levels in the organization”. Framework-based risk management allows project managers to identify key areas in which action should be taken at an appropriate time. Also, it enables effective management of projects by supporting decision-making on sub-uncertainty. Risk could be categorized according to the source of the risk. This is called Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS), and is documented as a risk assumption register through a risk identification process. IAEA considers various factors when defining risks in accordance with ISO 31000:2009. IAEA SRS No.97 presents a recommended risk management methodology for the strategy and execution stage of the decommissioning project of nuclear facilities through the DRiMa project conducted from 2012 to 2015. The risk breakdown structure classified in DRiMa project is as follows: (1) Initial condition of facility, (2) End state of decommissioning project, (3) Management of waste and materials, (4) Organization and human resources, (5) Finance, (6) Interfaces with contractors and suppliers, (7) Strategy and technology, (8) Legal and regulatory framework, (9) Safety, and (10) Interested parties. They have various prompts for each category. Such a strategy for dealing with risks has negative risks (threats) or positive risks (opportunities). The negative risks are as shown in avoid, transfer, mitigate and accept. On the other side, the positive risks are as shown in exploit, share, enhance and accept. During the decommissioning, a contingency infrastructure is needed to decrease the probability of unexpected events caused by negative risks. The contingency infrastructure of decommissioning project includes organization, funding, planning, legislation & regulations, information, training, stakeholder involvement, and modifications to existing programs. Since all nuclear facilities have different environmental, physical or contamination conditions, risks and treatment strategies should also be applied differently. This risk management process is expected to proceed at the stage of establishing and implementing a detailed plan for the decommissioning project of each individual plant.

The project schedule risk in the engineering and facility construction industry is increasingly considered as important management factor because the risks in terms of schedule or deadline may significantly affect the project cost. Especially, the project-based operating companies attempt to find the best estimate of the project completion time for use at their proposals, and therefore, usually have much interest in accurate estimation of the duration of the projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, and then performing risk assessment with simulation such as Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches require the accumulated executional data, which are not usually available in project-based operating company, and, further, they cannot reflect various schedule constraints, which usually are met during the project execution, the project managers have difficulty in preparing for the project risks in advance of their occurrence in the project execution. As these constraints may affect time and cost which role as the crucial evaluation factors to the quality of the project result, they must be identified and described in advance of their occurrence in the project management. This paper proposes a Bayesian Net based methodology for estimating project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the project risks and its response plan which may occur in storage tank engineering and construction project environment. First, we translated the schedule network with the project risks and its response plan into Bayesian Net. Second, we analyzed the integrated Bayesian Net and suggested an estimate of project schedule risk with simulation approach. Finally, we applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility.

최근 현대 무기체계는 최첨단 기술로 인한 무기체계 개발 속도 증가와 획득환경의 다변화와 더불어 이에 대한 위험도 동시에 증가하고 있다. 이에 따라 미국방부는 무기체계의 수명주기를 고려하여 시험평가를 지속 적용토록 강조하고 있다. 따라서 기존의 무기체계 시험평가 프로세스에서 다루는 시스템 설계에 대한 위험 관리 활동의 강화의 필요성 역시 강조되고 있다. 그 중에서도 무기체계 개발의 탐색개발 및 체계개발 단계는 양산에 들어가기 전의 최종 활동으로서 제대로 수행되어야만 초기에 의도한 무기체계 개발의 목적을 달성할 수 있을 것이다. 본 논문에서는 위험 관리 활동을 고려한 시험평가 프로세스의 개선사항 도출과 모델링을 통해 무기체계 시스템인 무기체계를 대상으로 적용 및 조정 구축에 대한 내용을 기술하고 있다. 본 연구의 결과를 토대로 향후 시험평가 시 위험관리에 대한 투자를 통해 전체 프로젝트의 기간 단축 및 비용 절감과 안전성 확보를 개선시킬 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

The project-based business companies usually have much interest in predicting the expected finish date and related probability of project completion to refer at their proposals for projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, then performing risk assessment with Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches cannot reflect various schedule constraints, the project managers cannot prepare for the project risks in advance of their. This paper proposed a methodology for predicting project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the constraints which may occur in a storage tank engineering and construction project environment. We applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility. By using the methodology proposed in this paper, the project schedule risk can be evaluated and predicted more accurately and practically than the PERT/CPM or Monte-Carlo simulation approach.

In this paper, a mathematical model is developed for finding a degree of influence of risks affecting the project. At risk identification step, all risks are structured in forms of block diagrams after risks of project activities are identified. At risk analysis step, reliability functions are derived based on block diagrams of risks. Reliability function represents the probability of the project success. Based on the derived reliability functions, risks importance is defined as a criterion for expressing a degree of influence of each risk affecting the success of the project, which is. Risks importance includes the structural importance of risk, the probability of risk, and the impact of risk. It could be applied to determine the priorities of risks which should be controlled, and the use of such priorities could guarantee successful project activities. Finally, examples of the proposed mathematical models will be given.

The uncertainty of a project generates risks hindering the goal achievement of the project, and the risks affect the success or failure of the project significantly. Risk management, a part of the project management, includes various processes, and there

미래는 어쩔 수 없이 불확실하다. 더욱이 현대 프로젝트의 다국적화, 거대화, 복잡화 현상은 프로젝트 성공과 관련된 미래 예측을 더욱 불확실하게 만들고 있다. 이러한 불확실성의 증가 현상은 모든 산업에 있어서 일반적인 것이며, 결과적으로 리스크에 대한 관리의 필요성을 더욱 증폭시키고 있다. 관리되지 않은 프로젝트 리스크는 프로젝트의 실패의 원인이 되며, 나아가 조직의 위기로 발전된다. 따라서 프로젝트 리스크는 프로젝트 팀을 포함한 전체 조직 차원에서 관리되어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 프로젝트의 전반에 걸쳐서 체계적인 리스크 관리를 위해 프로세스를 중심으로 서술하였다.

미국프로젝트관리협회(Project Management Institute)에서는 리스크의 형태를 외부 리스크(External Risk)와 내부 리스크(Internal Risk)로 구분 하고 있다. 외부 리스크는 프로젝트에서 통제가 불가능한 리스크로 정책 및 관련제도 변화, 기후 및 자연재해, 환율 등이다. 내부 리스크는 사업 자체에 존재하는 리스크로, 프로젝트내부에서 통제가 가능한 항목들이다. 프로젝트 관리상의 기술적 위험은 비용, 품질, 시간, 안전, 환경이다. 따라서 건설프로젝트의성공적인 수행을 위해서는 외부 리스크와 내부 리스크를 모두 관리해야 하며, 특히 기술적 리스크 관 리를 통하여 시설물의 품질과 안전을 확보할 수 있다. 특히 다수의 시설물로 구성된 복합 시설물은 다수의 단위프로젝트로 구성되어 있고, 다 양한 참여주체 및 이해관계자간 갈등이 존재하기 때문에 잠재 리스크에 대한관리의 중요성이 대두되고 있으며, 리스크 관리의 부재는 사업 지 연 및 공사비 증가와 더불어 시설물의안전에도 부정적 영향을 미친다. 본 연구는 복합 시설물의 안전성 확보를 위한 사업관리 측면의 리스크관 리 프로세스 구축 방안의 제시를 목적으로 수행하였다. 이를 위해 리스크 관리 프로세스의 구축 절차를 제시하고, 각 단계별 활용 가능한 리스 크 정보로서, 건설프로젝트에 내재된 리스크의 유형 및 요인, 그리고 대응 전략을 제시하였다.