The paper presents the results of a multi-criteria comparative evaluation of 12 feasible Russian nuclear energy deployment scenarios with thermal and fast reactors in a closed nuclear fuel cycle. The comparative evaluation was performed based on 6 performance indicators and 5 different MCDA methods (Simple Scoring Model, MAVT / MAUT, AHP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE) in accordance with the recommendations elaborated by the IAEA/INPRO section. It is shown that the use of different MCDA methods to compare the nuclear energy deployment scenarios, despite some differences in the rankings, leads to well-coordinated and similar results. Taking into account the uncertainties in the weights within a multi-attribute model, it was possible to rank the scenarios in the absence of information regarding the relative importance of performance indicators and determine the preference probability for a certain nuclear energy deployment scenario. Based on the results of the uncertainty/sensitivity analysis and additional analysis of alternatives as well as the whole set of graphical and attribute data, it was possible to identify the most promising nuclear energy deployment scenario under the assumptions made.

The active development of the global marine trade industries has been known to increase the inflows of marine invasive species and harmful organisms into the ecosystem, and the marine ecological disturbances. One of these invasive species, Ciona robusta, has now spread to the Korea Strait, the East Sea, and Jeju Island in connection with the climate change but not the Yellow Sea in Korea. Currently, the spread and distribution of C. robusta is increasingly damaging aquaculture and related facilities. Therefore, this study aims to identify the spread of C. robusta and potential habitats and to secure a data for the prevention of effective management measures due to climate change as well as damage the reduction in future through the prediction of spread. We used environmental variables in BioOracle. Also, the potential habitat and distribution of C. robusta was predicted using MaxEnt, a species distribution model. Two different RCP scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) were specified to predict the future distributions of C. robusta. The results showed that the biggest environmental factor affecting the distribution of C. robusta was the salinity as well as

기후변화는 곤충의 성장, 발육, 생존, 생식력, 분포범위 등 생활사의 변수들에 영향을 준다. 특히 외래곤충의 경우 생태계 정착 및 확산이 빨라 지고 있으며, 생태계 교란, 토착종 감소 등 생물다양성을 감소시키는 직접적인 원인 중 하나이다. 알팔파바구미는 1990년대 제주도에서 처음 발견 후 남부지방에 대량 발생하여 농업해충으로 인식되었다. 최근 하면처로 이동하는 개체에 의한 밭작물의 피해와 여러 시군에서 서식이 확인되며 확산의 우려되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화가 알팔파바구미에 미치는 영향에 대해 파악하였다. 미래의 기후 시나리오 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5에서 알팔파바구미의 잠재적 분포를 추정하기 위해 MaxEnt 모델을 적용하였다. 모형의 변수는 2015~2017년까지 알팔파바구미의 서식이 확인된 66개 지점과 종의 생태특성 및 예측변수간 상관성을 고려한 6개(bio3, bio6, bio10, bio12, bio14, bio16)의 생물기후를 사용하였다. 예측된 모형의 적합 도는 평균 0.765로 잠재력이 의미 있는 값이며, 최고 따뜻한 분기의 평균기온(bio10)이 60~70%로 높은 기여도를 나타냈다. 2050년과 2070년의 시나리오(RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5)에 대한 모형의 결과는 한반도 전역에서 알팔파바구미의 분포 변화를 보여 주었으며, 기온상승에 따른 전국적 확산이 예측되었다.

Two climate change scenarios, the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), were applied in the Yocheon basin area using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model to estimate changes in flow rates and pollutant loadings in the future. Field stream flow rate data in Songdong station and water quality data in Yocheon-1 station between 2013~2015 were used for model calibration. While R2 value of flow rate calibration was 0.85 and R2 value of water qualities were in the 0.12~0.43 range. The total study period was divided into 4 sub periods as 2030s (2016~2040), 2050s (2041~2070) and 2080s (2071~2100). The predicted results of flow rates and water quality concentrations were compared with results in calibrated periods, 2015s (2013~2015). In both RCP scenarios, flow rate and TSS (Total Suspended Solid) loadings were estimated to be in increasing trend while TN (Total Nitrogen) and TP (Total Phosphorus) loadings showed decreasing patterns. Also, flow rates and pollutant loadings showed larger differences between the maximum and the minimum values in RCP 4.5 than RCP 8.5 scenarios indicating more severe effect of drought and flood, respectively. Dependent on simulation period and rainfall periods in a year, flow rate, TSS, TN and TP showed different trends in each scenario. This emphasizes importance of considerations on time and space when analyzing climate change impacts of each variable under various scenarios.

The The purpose of this study is to investigate the actual liquefaction occurrence site in Pohang area and to analyze the ground characteristics of Pohang area using the data of the National Geotechnical Information DB Center and to calculate the liquefaction potential index. Based on the results, the distribution of soil classification in Pohang area and the risk of liquefaction under various earthquake accelerations were prepared. As a result of the study, soils in Pohang has the soil characteristics that can cause the site amplification phenomenon. In the analysis through liquefaction hazard maps under earthquake scenarios, it is found that the liquefaction occurred in the area of Heunghae town is more likely to be liquefied than other areas in Pohang. From these results, it is expected that the study on the preparation of liquefaction hazard maps will contribute to the preparation of countermeasures against liquefaction by predicting the possibility in the future.

Purpose: The goal of this study was to develop a simulation scenario for patients with increased intracranial pressure(IICP) and a simulation education program based on Goal-based Scenario(GBS). Methods: The first stage of this study was to investigate GBS, based on which a simulation scenario was developed using the modified Bay Area Simulation Collaborative scenario template. A team of experts was asked to evaluate the scenario. Results: The simulation education program was creasted, which included educational goals, missions, scenarios, roles, scenario operations, resources, and feedback. The scenarios were analyzed on the basis of 4 algorithm: initial assessment, neurologic assessment, IICP nursing assessmnet, reassessment of IICP signs, and monitoring vital signs. Conclusion: The simulation scenarios developed in this study can provide students with opportunities to practice nursing for patients with IICP, Further, this scenario may provide instructors with a systematic and sustainable simulation education model for an instructor.

This study was conducted to predict the changes of potential distribution for invasive alien plant, Amaranthus viridis in Korea. The habitats of A. viridis were roadside, bare ground, farm area, and pasture, where the interference by human was severe. We used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) for analyzing the environmental influences on A. viridis distribution and projecting on two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results of our study indicated annual mean temperature, elevation and precipitation of coldest month had higher contribution for A. viridis potential distribution. Projected potential distribution of A. viridis will be increased by 110% on RCP 4.5, 470% on RCP 8.5.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the climate change exposure of fisheries and fish species in the southern sea of Korea under the RCP climate change scenarios. The extent of exposure was calculated through weighted sum of the sea temperature forecasted by National Institute of Fisheries Science, and the weight were obtained from the time-space distribution of each fisheries or species, based on the micro-data for the fishing information reported by each fisherman. Results show that all the exposed sea temperature of RCP8.5 is higher than that of RCP4.5 in year 2100 as well as in near 2030, therefore it is thought to be very important to reduce the GHG emission even in the short term. The extent of exposure was analyzed to be comparatively high especially in the fisheries such as anchovy drag nets and species like cod, anchovy and squid. Meanwhile the method of this study is considered to be excellent to obtain the accurate extent of exposure under RCP scenarios, and therefore it is applicable on assessing the vulnerability of climate change in fisheries.

Even though no international legal instrument explicitly provides the right for States to establish ADIZs, such zones have been unilaterally declared since the 1950s. China’s ADIZ above the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands - a disputed area in the East China Sea and her recent activities in disputed maritime features in the South China Sea have given rise to concerns about other ADIZs that Beijing may possibly establish above this area. In that context, this paper ventures to draw some potential ADIZs, which may be established by China above the South China Sea, and predicts diplomatic and legal reactions from other States.

경주에 저준위 및 극저준위 방사성폐기물을 영구적으로 처분하기 위한 2단계 처분시설이 표층처분시설로 건설된다. 처분시 설은 폐쇄 후 제도적 관리기간 동안에는 일반인의 부주의한 침입을 제한하지만, 제도적 관리기간 이후에는 일반인에 대한 접근이 제한되지 않는다. 이에 따라 거주 및 자원 탐사 등을 목적으로 한 인간침입 행위가 발생될 수 있으며, 이 경우 침입자 에 대한 방사선 영향은 일반인에 대한 선량한도로 제한되어야 한다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 부지 특성을 반영하여 시추 및 시 추 후 거주시나리오를 설정하고 종류 및 준위별 발생량을 고려하여 선정된 처분고내 폐기물에 대하여 평가하였다. 첫째, 시 추 및 시추 후 거주시나리오의 평가결과가 모두 규제 제한치를 만족하였다. 둘째, 평가결과 시추 후 거주시나리오가 시추시 나리오에 비해 중요한 시나리오임을 알 수 있었다. 셋째, 폐쇄 후 인간침입 시점과 침입자의 행위에 따라 침입자가 지배적으 로 영향 받는 핵종이 다름을 알 수 있었다. 넷째, 인간행위와 관련된 입력 자료의 민감도 분석결과 모두 규제 제한치를 만족 하였다. 특히 민감도 분석결과, 토양재분배인자에 피폭선량이 가장 민감하게 변동됨을 알 수 있었다. 다섯째, 인간침입평가 측면에서 폐기물의 바람직한 정치방안을 살펴본 결과, 폐필터 폐기물은 가능한 폐수지 및 농축폐액 폐기물보다 잡고체 폐기 물과 정치하며 폐필터 폐기물 비율을 낮추는 것이 개인최대 피폭선량을 줄이고 선량한도 대비 안전여유도를 높이기 위해서 바람직함을 알 수 있었다. 이러한 연구결과는 처분시설의 개발 시 인간침입을 고려한 표층처분시설의 강건성과 심층방어를 위한 Safety Case 구축을 위하여 활용하고자 한다.

Maritime boundary issues have become a constraint in the relations between Indonesia and its neighboring countries, including Malaysia. One of the pending issues regarding the overlapping maritime boundary which is not yet to be resolved is the Ambalat area. The primary purpose of this research is to suggest possible senarioa to resolve the maritime delimitation dispute between Indonesia and Malaysia around Ambalt peacefully under international law. This article is prepared to explore all available ways for the peaceful settlement on Ambalat issue.The author will examine the diplomatic channel, ASEAN Way dispute settlement mechanism, adjudication process (litigation and arbitration), and dispute settlement under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. He will also epropose other innovative approach, such like Joint Development Zone. The result of such examination can be used as considerations for the way forward.

Modern systems development becomes more and more complicated due to the need on the ever-increasing capability of the systems. In addition to the complexity issue, safety concern is also increasing since the malfunctions of the systems under development may result in the accidents in both the test and evaluation phase and the operation phase. Light rail transit(LRT) with passenger capacity between bus and subway is driven by an unmanned control, so safety issues of LRT in emergency shall be considered more carefully than other rolling stock. Modern railway system is a complex system and many actions in emergency are required. In this view, interoperability approach is effective to identify the related elements in emergency. In this paper, we propose the method to generate the fire response scenario of unmann ed LRT based on the outputs of systems engineering architecture design methodology. The proposed method is could be contributed to establish more reliable and applicable fire response scenario.

본 연구는 세월호 침몰 상황 시의 실제 힐링각 변화를 환경조건으로 하고 476명의 승선자에게 정상적인 탈출명령이 전달되었을 경우를 가정한 승객 탈출시나리오를 선박용 인적피난시뮬레이션을 활용하여 예측, 분석하였다. 연구 결과, 평지에서의 평균보행속도가 각각 1.48 m/s, 2.04 m/s인 경우 힐링각 0°인 시나리오와 힐링각 30°인 시나리오에서 탈출 소요시간은 다르지만 모든 승객이 매우 높은 확률로 탈출에 성공할 것으로 예측되었다. 또한 세월호 사고의 힐링각 변화를 반영한 시나리오의 시뮬레이션에서는 평지 평균보행능력을 2.04 m/s로 설정한 경우 Nav. deck(5층)의 우현 슈트로만 퇴선하는 시나리오(Sc-Va)에서는 평균 3.1 %, 우현의 모든 갑판으로 퇴선하는 시나리오(Sc-Vb), 우현의 모든 갑판과 선미로 향하는 통로를 이용해 퇴선하는 시나리오(Sc-Vc)에서는 각각 11.1 %, 20.0 %이 탈출에 성공하지만, 평지 보행속도를 1.48 m/s로 설정할 경우 각각의 시나리오에 대해 0.8 %, 3.8 %, 10.7 %만이 탈출에 성공할 것으로 예측되었다.

For the hydrogen economy system being tried starting with the 21st century, the fields that was not dealt with so far, such as the safety measure for large leakage accidents, the safety problem at infrastructures like a hydrogen station, the safety problem in terms of automobiles depending on introduction of hydrogen cars, the safety problem in a supply for homes like fuel cells, etc., are being deeply reviewed. In order to establish a safety control system, an essential prerequisite in using and commercializing hydrogen gas as an efficient energy source, it is necessary to conduct an analysis, such as analysis of hydrogen accident examples, clarification of physical mechanisms, qualitative and quantitative evaluation of safety, development of accident interception technologies, etc. This study prepared scenarios of hydrogen gas leakage that can happen at hydrogen stations, and predicted damage when hydrogen leaks by using PHAST for this.

게임 개발은 다른 소프트웨어와 비교해서 다양한 분야의 전문가들이 참여하여 창의적인 과정을 거쳐서 생산물을 만들어낸다. 여기에서 가장 중요시 되고 어려운 분야가 시나리오에 대한 공통되고 동일한 상황 인식이다. 기존의 소프트웨어와 비교해서 게임 개발 방법은 통일된 형태의 개발 및 정형화된 표현 방법이 미흡하다. 본 논문은 시나리오에 대한 개발 참여자들간의 정보를 공유하고 개발 후에 발생할 수 있는 잠재적인 오류 및 개발 비용을 최소화하기 위한 시나리오 표현 방법을 개발한다. 이를 위해 사건-상태-행동 그래프에 기반한 시나리오 표현 방법을 제안한다. 그리고, 게임 시나리오에 대한 충분한 토의와 정보 공유는 게임의 애매하고 창의적인 개발 특성상 유익한 과정이다.. 제안하는 방법을 Age of Empire 게임 시나리오로 표현하여 그 유용성을 보인다.

동아시아 공급망 경제를 분석하여 공급망의 효율적인 운영방안과 새로운 동아시아 공급망경제의 필요성을 제시하고자 한다. 동아시아는 육로를 이용한 동아시아의 공급 망이 구축될 경우에 시너지와 커다란 동아시아 국가별 이익지대가 존재한다. 본 연구는 시나리오 방법을 이용하여 동아시아 경제의 이익지대를 분석하여 새로운 동아시아시대를 준비하고, 동아시아 국가들의 공동의 번영을 도모하는 데 있다.