세계 100대 악성 침입외래종인 유리알락하늘소(Anoplophora glabripennis)와 근연종인 노랑알락하늘소(가 칭, Anoplophora horsfieldii (Hope, 1843))가 2019년 제주도에서 처음 발견된 후 2023년까지 지속적으로 확인되었 다. 본 연구는 MaxEnt 알고리즘을 기반으로 하는 생물종 분포 모델을 이용하여 19개의 기후변화 변수에 노랑알락 하늘소(가칭) 먹이식물 5종(차나무, 팽나무, 멀구슬나무, 종가시나무, 비술나무)의 변수를 추가하여 외래해충인 노랑알락하늘소(가칭)의 현재·미래의 분포 가능지역에 대한 공간적 분포 특성을 규명하고 국가적 확산을 대응 하고자 한다. 모델 예측 정확도(AUC)는 0.983으로 출현지점을 정확하게 예측하는 비율이 매우 높다고 할 수 있다. 모델 예측 정확도의 증감에 영향을 주는 환경변수 중 먹이식물의 기여도가 70%를 상회하는 것으로 나타났다. 현재 75% 이상 분포 가능지역은 전라남도 진도군 일대와 경상북도 포항시 일대로 나타났으나 2050년에는 서해안을 따라 태안군까지 동해안을 따라 북한의 고성군까지 분포가 가능한 것으로 나타났다. 또한 75% 이상 분포 가능 면적은 현재 423㎢에서 2050년에는 9,270㎢로 약 대한민국 면적의 1/10 정도 확산될 것으로 예측된다.

Dysmicoccus brevipes (Cockerell), Dysmicoccus neobrevipes Beardsley and Pseudococcus longispinus (Targioni-Tozzetti) are widely-distributed pests that feeds on many economically important hosts, particularly tropical fruits and ornamentals. The potential distribution of these mealybug pests into South Korea remains a primary concern because of their high incidence in interceptions screened during inspection. Hence, these species prompted a modelling effort to assess their potential risk of introduction. Potential risk maps were developed for these pests with the CLIMEX model based on occurrence records under environmental data. The potential distribution of these pests in South Korea in the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s was projected based on the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Results show that D. brevipes, D. neobrevipes and P. longispinus have little potential for invasion in the exterior environment of South Korea due to high cold stress in the 2020s. However, for D. brevipes and P. longispinus, 3 and 86 locations in Jejudo, were predicted to be marginally suitable for this pest under future climate factors, respectively. In that respect, the results of these model predictions could be used to prepare a risk-based surveying program that improves the probability of detecting early D. brevipe, D. neobrevipes and P. longispinus populations.

The key to invasive pest management lies in preemptive action. However, most current research using species distribution models is conducted after an invasion has occurred. This study modeled the potential distribution of the globally notorious sweet potato pest, the sweet potato weevil (Cylas formicarius), that has not yet invaded Korea using MaxEnt. Using global occurrence data, bioclimatic variables, and topsoil characteristics, MaxEnt showed high explanatory power as both the training and test areas under the curve exceeded 0.9. Among the environmental variables used in this study, minimum temperature in the coldest month (BIO06), precipitation in the driest month (BIO14), mean diurnal range (BIO02), and bulk density (BDOD) were identified as key variables. The predicted global distribution showed high values in most countries where the species is currently present, with a significant potential invasion risk in most South American countries where C. formicarius is not yet present. In Korea, Jeju Island and the southwestern coasts of Jeollanam-do showed very high probabilities. The impact of climate change under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios indicated an expansion along coasts as climate change progresses. By applying the 10th percentile minimum training presence rule, the potential area of occurrence was estimated at 1,439 km2 under current climate conditions and could expand up to 9,485 km2 under the SSP585 scenario. However, the model predicted that an inland invasion would not be serious. The results of this study suggest a need to focus on the risk of invasion in islands and coastal areas.

본 연구는 소나무재선충병 방제대상지 선정의 효율성을 높이기 위해 진주시를 대상으로 소나무재선충병 잠재분포를 예측하였다. 예측에 사용된 MaxEnt 모델은 회귀분석을 기반으로 종 발생 확률 평가 및 다양한 잠재분포 예측에 이용되고 있다. 종속변수로는 소나무재선충병 감염목 자료를 사용하였으며, 독립변수로는 지리 ‧ 지형 ‧ 기후적 요인으로 총 15개 인자를 사용하였다. 잠재분포 예측 결과, 모델의 성능은 AUC가 0.801로 우수한 수준의 정확도를 나타냈다. 독립변수 중에는 전년도 감염목과의 거리, 6월 하순 강우량, 5월 강우량, 화목보일러와의 거리 순으로 잠재분포에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 지속적인 소나무재선충병 감염목 DB 구축과 지리적 요인들에 대한 모니터링의 중요성이 크다는 것을 의미한다.

Invasive alien species pose a considerable threat to both natural ecosystems and human societies. Among these invasive species, forest pests stand out as particularly detrimental, as they can lead to a substantial decline in native biodiversity, deforestation, and the loss of forestry products. The recent effects of climate change and the expansion of international trade have further exacerbated the spread of these invasive species. In this study, we provide an overview of prediction models based on species distribution models for assessing the potential distribution of invasive forest pests in Korea. This information can prove invaluable in the development of effective management and control strategies for these alien species.

For producing radionuclides which were mostly used in medical purposes, for instance, Positron Emission Tomography (PET), there were about 1,200 PET cyclotrons operated in 95 countries based upon IAEA database (2020). Besides, including PET cyclotrons, demands for particle accelerators are continuously increasing. In Korea, about 40 PET cyclotrons are in operating phases (2020). Considering design lifetime (about 30–40 years) of cyclotrons, there will be demands for decommissioning cyclotron facilities in the near future. PET cyclotron produces radionuclides by irradiating charged particles to the targets. During this phase, nuclear reactions (18O(p,n)18F, 14N(d,n)15O etc.) produce secondary neutrons which induce neutron activation of accelerator itself as well as surrounding infrastructures (the ancillary subsystems, peripheral equipment, concrete walls etc.). Most of the ancillary systems including peripheral equipment can be neutron activated, since, most of them were made of steels. Steels like stainless steel or carbon steel may contain some impurities, typically cobalt. Although, there were several researches evaluating activation of concrete walls and accelerator components, estimating the activation and influence on neutron interaction of the other surrounding infrastructures were insufficient. In this study, by using computational neutron transport code (MCNP 6.2), and source term calculation code (FISPACT- II), we estimated neutron distribution in cyclotron vault and activation of ancillary subsystems including some peripheral equipment. Also, using Au foil and Cd cover, we measured thermal neutron distribution at 16 points on the concrete wall, and compared it to calculated results (MCNP). Even though, the compared results matches well, there was a discrepancy of neutron distributions between presence and absence of those equipment. Additionally, in estimating activation distributions by calculating, most of the steel-based subsystems including peripheral equipment should be managed by radioactive wastes after 20 years of operation. Throughout this study, we could find that influence on neutron interaction of those equipment can affect neutron distribution in concrete walls. This results vary the activation depth as well as location of the hot contaminated spot in concrete wall. For estimating or evaluating activation distributions in cyclotron facilities, there was need to consider some equipment located in cyclotron vault.

본 연구는 한국 특산식물이고, IUCN Red List의 EN(위기종) 등급에 속하는 개느삼을 대상으로 자생지 분포, 자생지 분포 예측을 하기 위해 수행되었다. 개느삼의 자생지 분포 조사 결과 ,강원도 양구군 13곳, 인제군 3곳, 춘천시 2곳, 홍천군 1곳 총 19곳에 분포하는 것을 확인하였다. 우리나라에서 가장 북쪽 자생지는 양구군 임당리, 동쪽 인제군 한계리, 서쪽 춘천시 지내리, 남쪽 홍천군 성동리로 각각 확인되었다. 개느삼 자생지의 해발고도는 169-711m에 분포하는 것으로 나타났고, 평균 해발고도는 375m로 조사되었다. 개느삼 자생지의 면적은 8,000-734,000㎡인 것으로 분석되었고, 평균 202,789㎡로 조사되었다. 대부분의 개느삼 자생지는 간벌, 가지치기 등과 같은 숲가꾸기가 이루어진 곳으로 조사되었다. 개느삼 잠재 분포지 분석을 MaxEnt 프로그램을 이용하여 수행한 결과, AUC값은 0.9762로 분석되었다. 분포예측 자생지는 강원도 양구 군, 인제군, 춘천시, 화천군 지역에 집중되어 분포하는 것으로 나타났다. 자생지 분포예측에 가장 영향을 많이 미치는 변수는 연간강수량, 토양탄소함유량, 최한월 기온으로 분석되었다. 본 연구 결과를 토대로 개느삼은 광량이 풍부하고 능선부에 주로 서식하는 것을 확인하였고, 향후 본 연구결과의 자생지 정보를 토대로 개느삼 자생지를 보전하기 위한 보호지역 지정 등을 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

The influx of marine exotic and alien species is disrupting marine ecosystems and aquaculture. Herdmania momus, reported as an invasive species, is distributed all along the coast of Jeju Island and has been confirmed to be distributed and spread to Busan. The potential habitats and distribution of H. momus were estimated using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, quantum geographic information system (QGIS), and Bio-ocean rasters for analysis of climate and environment (Bio-ORACLE), which can predict the distribution and spread based only on species occurrence data using species distribution model (SDM). Temperature and salinity were selected as environmental variables based on previous literature. Additionally, two different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were set up to estimate future and potential habitats owing to climate change. The prediction of potential habitats and distribution for H. momus using MaxEnt confirmed maximum temperature as the highest contributor (77.1%), and mean salinity, the lowest (0%). And the potential habitats and distribution of H. momus were the highest on Jeju Island, and no potential habitat or distribution was seen in the Yellow Sea. Different RCP scenarios showed that at RCP 4.5, H. momus would be distributed along the coast of Jeju Island in the year 2050 and that the distribution would expand to parts of the Korea Strait by the year 2100. RCP 8.5, the distribution in 2050 is predicted to be similar to that at RCP 4.5; however, by 2100, the distribution is predicted to expand to parts of the Korea Strait and the East Sea. This study can be utilized as basic data to effectively control the ecological injuries by H. momus by predicting its spread and distribution both at present and in the future.

본 연구는 한반도에서 Proto3 모형을 수행하기 위하여 필요한 3가지 기후인자 지도, 1. 식물 내한성 구역, 2. 쾨펜- 가이거 기후구, 3. 연누적강수량 영역에 대한 한반도 지도를 1 km 해상도로 제작하였다. Worldclim V2와 한반도 30 년 평균 기상대 데이터를 이용하여 한반도 최저극값온도 격자를 제작하였으며, 이를 활용하여 한반도 식물 내한성 구역 격자지도를 제작하여 Proto3에 이용하였다. 쾨펜-가 이거 기후구 지도는 Beck et al. (2018)의 쾨펜-가이거 기후구 지도를 Proto3에 적합하게 변형하였으며, 연누적강수량 영역은 Worldclim V2를 활용하여 제작하였다. 제작된 Proto3 기후 인자 지도를 활용하여 외래잡초 별나팔꽃의 정착 확산 가능 지역을 예측한 결과, 남한 대부분의 지역과 북한의 황해도를 포함한 남쪽 지방까지 전체 한반도 격자의 50.7%가 정착, 확산 가능지역으로 예측되었다. 본 결과는 별나팔꽃의 위해성 평가 및 관리 체계 수립 등에 활용가능할 것으로 판단된다.

The red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkia) originated from the North America distribute widely as invasive species throughout the world including Europe, Asia, Africa, North America and South America. The red swamp crayfish is also an invasive species in South Korea. We aimed to characterize the occurrence and distribution pattern of the red swamp crayfish, and evaluate the potential distribution of this species in South Korea. In South Korea, the red swamp crayfish was firstly reported in Seoul in 1996, and recently its occurrence is frequently reported at streams or reservoirs at different regions, showing the expansion of its distribution area. The red swamp crayfish has high potential to occur in the nationwide scale in South Korea because of their biological adaptation, effects of climate change, changes of their habitat condition, and various types of human activities. Finally, our results revealed the necessary to conduct an extensive field survey, to keep up a monitoring program for the occurrence of alien species, and to implement a strategy to prevent the dispersal of alien species in the natural ecosystems.