한국 연안에서는 연간 5~8만m/t정도의 멸치가 어획되고 있으나 주 어장은 경남 일원을 중심으로 남해안이다. 따라서 남해안의 어황변동을 예보할 수 있으면서 어업경영의 합리화에 크게 이바지 할 수 있을 것이고, 그에 따라 황멸치의 수급 계획 수립에도 크게 도움이 될 것이다. 여기서 먼저 1971~77년 7년간의 수온, 부유생물, 강수량과 열수지를 조사, 계산하고 그 해 봄철의 강수량을 조사하면 그 해의해황이 예측될 수 있고 그에 따라 멸치의 어황도 예보할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다

This paper was analysed based on the oceanographic and meteorological data complied from 1971 to 1977 for that search relationships among the fluctuation of sea condition and weather condition, and the catch of anchovy. In the year when heat loss from the sea surface in winter was maximum(in 1974, 658 Iy), temperature of midwater in summer was lower 2~4\ulcornerC than normal year. While heat loss was minimum (in1973, 487 Iy), temperature of mid water was higher 2\ulcornerC. When temperature of mid water of southern coast from June to August was higher than normal year, anchovy was caught good deal, but that was lower than normal year was bad fishing. When it had much precipitation (in 1973, 256mm), plankton was checked maximum (12cc) and also the catch of anchovy too (11, OOOm/t). While precipitation was minimum (in 1976, 123mm), plankton (3cc) and anchovy (2, 800m/t) was a litle. If we calcalate heat budget in winter, we can forecast temperature of mid-water in summer of following year. Therefore we may be able to forecast catch anchovy.

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