논문 상세보기

KCI 등재

A Study on forecasting container volume of port using SD and ARIMA

  • 언어ENG
  • URLhttps://db.koreascholar.com/Article/Detail/261507
서비스가 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
Journal of Korean Navigation and Port Reserch (한국항해항만학회지)
한국항해항만학회 (Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research)
초록

The forecasting of container volume which is the basis of port logistics facilities expansion has a great influence on development of an port. Based on this importance, various previous studies have presented methodology on container volume forecasting. The results of many previous studies pointed out the limitations of future forecasting based on past container volume and emphasized that more various factors should be considered to compensate this. Taking notice of this point, this study forecasted future container volume by using ARIMA model, time series analysis and System Dynamics (SD) method, a dynamic analysis technique and performed the comparative review with the forecast of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime affairs. Recently with rapid changes in economic and social environment, the non-linear change tendency for forecasting container traffic is presented as a new alternative to the country.

저자
  • Jong-Kil Kim
  • Ji-Yeong Pak
  • Ying Wang
  • Sung-Il Park
  • Gi-Tae Yeo