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System Dynamics법을 이용한 동북아항만 경쟁모델에 관한 연구

On the Competitive Model among Northeast Asia Port by System Dynamics Method

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Journal of Port and Harbor Research (한국항만학회논문집:연구논문집)
(1998)
pp.35-42
한국항해항만학회 (Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research)
초록

If a system has a large boundary and complexity, forecast's accuracy will be very low when consider the system's substance as black box. Thus, it is necessary that analysis by structure model. To examine competition in Northeast Asia Ports, it has assumed that the form of structure model, For which the System Dynamics method is adapted in this paper. Northeast Asia Ports Model includes five ports - Pusan, Kobe, Yokohama, Kaoshiung, Keelung, - which are adjacent to each other by geographically and has a competition relation. The Northeast Asia Ports Model has several sub-systems which consists of each unit port models. And, each unit port model found by quantitive, qualititive factors and their feedback loops. All effects which components of one port have influence to components of the rest ports must be surveyed in order to construct Northeast Asia Ports Model, but it may be impossible currently. In this paper Northeast Asia Ports Model was simplified by HFP-Hierarchical Fuzzy Process Method -adapted to integration of level variables of unit port model. Container cargo volumes in Northeast Ports Model is distributed by results of HFP method. And, distributed container cargo volumes effected to unit port model. Developed model can estimate change of container cargo volumes in competitive relation by alternation of simple parameter, and reflects dynamics characteristics which are included in model.

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