Light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana, is a significant horticultural pest native to Australia, and currently with a limited global distribution. However it can tolerate very heterogeneous climatic and vegetation conditions and has recently invaded California with considerable consequences for US international and domestic trade. By comparing the climatic conditions of its native (Australia) and long-established (New Zealand) ranges to the rest of the world using CLIMEX, it was suggested that E. postvittana has potential to establish mainly in countries in Central and South America, southern Africa, west Europe and South-east Asia. However, the predicted global distribution of E. postvittana using a new multiple-species-distribution model system suggested that there are additional climatically suitable areas around the world where this species could potentially survive and establish. Our study provides basic but important information for further assessment of the establishment capacity of this species in new habitats, wihch will provide the knowledge required to make science-based decisions in biosecurity.

• Shuqi He(Institute of Agriculture and Life Science, Gyeongsang National University, Department of Entomology, Plant Protection College, Yunnan Agriculturall University)
• Susan P Worner(Bio-protection Research Center, Lincoln University)
• Takayoshi Ikeda(Bio-protection Research Center, Lincoln University)
• Gwenael Leday(Bio-protection Research Center, Lincoln University)