Interest in seismic performance evaluation is increased due to various earthquake in the world. Many studies about fragility analysis of structure are performing which is based on probability analysis of failure for infrastructures maintenance. In this study, probability of failure for a numerical model of prototype square-shape reinforced concrete column was calculated in accordance with amplitude of seismic ground motion. The numerical model was updated based on results from shake table tests. The probability of failure will be used for comparing with that for scaled models. The difference of fragilities from prototype and scaled model can be confirmed by the comparing in a further study.