The probabilistic prediction method and procedure of ships traffic for reasonably considering the enlargement of ships and increase in the large vessels of the vessel were established in this paper. However the problem related on prediction method, confidence intervals and selecting the target tonnage considering the enlargement of ship for prediction of ships is lack of results such as design example and study case. Therefore it requires various methodological study.

• 배용귀((주)유신 항만부 과장, 공학박사) | Bae Yong Gwi 교신저자
• 이성로(목포대학교 토목공학과 교수, 공학박사) | Lee Seong Lo