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pp.199-213
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides various prospects of future climate change under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios using General Circulation Models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This paper describes a modified application of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (EBMA) to produce daily mean temperature ensembles using 19 GCMs provided by CMIP. We proposed two types of approach: (1) monthly weighting scheme for a whole area (EBMA.v1) and (2) monthly weighting for each grid point (EBMA.v2), which can take into account the spatially heterogeneous pattern of GCM. For the training period of 1979- 2005 for East Asia, 9,855 sets of daily temperature ensembles (27 years × 365 days) were produced and compared to the ERA-Interim reanalysis data of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which showed better validation statistics than the general mean and median ensembles. In particular, EBMA.v2 outperformed EBMA.v1 by diminishing the large errors of inland areas where the surface heterogeneity is larger than the ocean. The EBMA.v2 was able to handle the problem of spatial variability by employing monthly and spatially varying weighting scheme. We finally produced daily mean temperature ensembles for the period of 2006-2100 by using the EBMA.v2 under the RCP 6.0 scenario, which are going to be provided on the web.
