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pp.103-110
Predictive food microbiology(PFM) is an emerging area of food microbiology since the later 1980's. It does apply mathematical models to predict the responses of microorganism to specified environmental variables. Although, at present, PFM models do not completely developed, models can provide very useful information for microbiological responses in HACCP(Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point) system and Risk Assessment. This study illustrates the possible use of PFM models(PMP: Pathogen Modeling Program win5.1) with milk in several elements in the HACCP system, such as conduction of hazard analysis and determination of CCP(Critical Control Points) and CL(Critical Limits). The factors likely to affect the growth of the pathogens in milk involved storage temperature, pH, Aw and NaCl content. The variable factor was storage temperature at the range of 4-15℃ and the fixed factors were pH 6.7, Aw 0.993 and NaCl 1.3%. PMPwin5.1 calculated generation time, lag phase duration, time to level of infective dose for pathogens across a range of storage temperature. The levels of safety associated with milk which were defined based on various storage temperature as affecting microbial growth according to PMPwin5.1 were classified in $quot;safe temperature zone$quot;, $quot;caution temperature zone$quot; and $quot;danger temperature zone$quot;, respectively. These zone ranges were determined by the lag phase duration and time to level of infective dose based on shelf life of milk, which is required 5 days in domestic legal. These results can be used to conduct a hazard analysis and set the criteria for CCP or CL. Though PFM contains limitation in the use, PFM models can be useful instrument to support of guarantee of food safety.
