Occurrence and Estimation Using Monte - Carlo Simulation of Aflatoxin M1 , in Domestic Cow`s Milk and Milk Products
In this study, occurrence of aflatoxin M₁ (AFM₁) in domestic milk and milk products was determined. The level of AFM₁ in market milk (0.047 ppb) was lower than that in raw milk (0.083 ppb) but this looks like that is due to dilution in collecting process rather than the effect of sterilization. In the case of nonfat dry milk, level of AFM₁ appeared high by 0.24 ppb but it is thought to be not different from market milk actually because nonfat dry milk is diluted at intake. In the case of ice cream, finished products were contaminated with AFM₁ of 0.020 ppb and also have the possibility of the contamination of AFB₁ due to secondary raw material such as nuts and alinond. On the basis of the results of this study and previous studies, Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted to estimate the contamination level of AFM₁ in domestic market milk. To consider uncertainty and variability fitting procedure was passed through. And we used beta distribution to estimate the prevalence and triangular distribution to estimate the concentration level of AFM₁ in milk. As a result, the 5%, 50% and 95% points of the distribution of the probability of AFM₁ contamination level in milk is 0.0214, 0.0946 and 0.1888 ppb, respectively. Also we estimate that AFM₁ in almost milk was low more than 0.5 ppb that is American acceptable level but 80.4% exceeded far 0.05 ppb that is European standard.