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A Model for Forecasting Annual Trips and Revenues on Expressway
There are various issues affecting the financial revenues of expressways, such as new transportation systems, the opening of new roads, and free toll charges. As a result, expressway toll revenues for 2017 increased only 0.3% from the previous year. If this trend continues, the steady increase in expressway revenue may have occurred, therefore it is necessary to improve the model of annual trips and revenues considering various external variables that are occurring recently. In this study, we constructed annual trips forecasting model that can analyze more precisely the changes of road network by using new independent variables (which are not considered in existing models) such as weighted length considering regional traffic volume level and private road ratio. Also we performed a basic statistical analysis on oil prices and reflected the model as a dummy variable to improve the explanatory power of the model. And we established an analysis process to estimate the toll revenue. The results of this study can be used as the basic data for expressway financial model.
