The project-based business companies usually have much interest in predicting the expected finish date and related probability of project completion to refer at their proposals for projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, then performing risk assessment with Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches cannot reflect various schedule constraints, the project managers cannot prepare for the project risks in advance of their. This paper proposed a methodology for predicting project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the constraints which may occur in a storage tank engineering and construction project environment. We applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility. By using the methodology proposed in this paper, the project schedule risk can be evaluated and predicted more accurately and practically than the PERT/CPM or Monte-Carlo simulation approach.

• Hongsuk Sung(Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Changwon National University) | 성홍석
• Chulsoon Park(Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Changwon National University) | 박철순