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기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 제주도 확률강우량 산정 KCI 등재

Estimation of Design Rainfall Based on Climate Change Scenario in Jeju Island

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한국환경과학회지 (Journal of Environmental Science International)
한국환경과학회 (The Korean Environmental Sciences Society)
초록

As occurrence of gradually increasing extreme temperature events in Jeju Island, a hybrid downscaling technique that simultaneously applies by dynamical method and statistical method has implemented on design rainfall in order to reduce flood damages from severe storms and typhoons.As a result of computation, Case 1 shows a strong tendency to excessively compute rainfall, which is continuously increasing. While Case 2 showed similar trend as Case 1, low design rainfall has computed by rainfall in A1B scenario. Based on the design rainfall computation method mainly used in Preventive Disaster System through Pre-disaster Effect Examination System and Basic Plan for River of Jeju Island which are considering climatic change for selecting 50-year and 100-year frequencies. Case 3 selecting for Jeju rain gage station and Case 1 for Seogwipo rain gage station. The results were different for each rain gage station because of difference in rainfall characteristics according to recent climatic change, and the risk of currently known design rainfall can be increased in near future.

목차
Abstract
 1. 서 론
 2. 재료 및 방법
  2.1. 분위사상법
  2.2. 대상관측소 선정
 3. 결과 및 고찰
  3.1. 확률강우량 산정
  3.2. 방법별 확률 강우량의 증가율
 4. 결론
 REFERENCE
저자
  • 이준호(제주대학교 토목공학과) | Jun-ho Lee (Department of Civil Engineering, Jeju National University)
  • 양성기(제주대학교 토목공학과) | Sung-Kee Yang (Department of Civil Engineering, Jeju National University) Corresponding author
  • 정우열(제주특별자치도의회) | Woo-Yul Jung (Jeju Special self-governing provincial council)
  • 양원석(제주특별자치도 수자원본부) | Won-Seok Yang (Jeju Water Resouruces Headquarters)