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지구기후모형 기온변화에 따른 미래 하천생태환경에서의 수온 예측 KCI 등재

Prediction of Climate-induced Water Temperature using Nonlinear Air-water Temperature Relationship for Aquatic Environments

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한국환경과학회지 (Journal of Environmental Science International)
한국환경과학회 (The Korean Environmental Sciences Society)
초록

To project the effects of climate-induced change on aquatic environments, it is necessary to determine the thermal constraints affecting different fish species and to acquire time series of the current and projected water temperature (WT). Assuming that a nonlinear regression between the WT at individual stations and the ambient air temperature (AT) at nearby weather stations could represent the best relationship of air-water temperature, This study estimates future WT using a general circulation model (GCM). In addition, assuming that the grid-averaged observations of AT correspond to the AT output from GCM simulation, this study constructed a regression curve between the observations of the local WT and the concurrent GCM-simulated surface AT. Because of its low spatial resolution, downscaling is unavoidable. The projected WT under global warming scenario A2 (B2) shows an increase of about 1.6 (0.9 ) for the period 2080-2100. The maximum/minimum WT shows an amount of change similar to that of the mean values. This study will provide guidelines for decision-makers and engineers in climate-induced river environment and ecosystem management.

목차
Abstract
 1. 서 론
 2. 대상 지역 및 관측 자료
 3. GCM 자료
 4. 분석 결과
 5. 결 론
 감사의 글
 REFERENCES
저자
  • 이길하(대구대학교 토목공학과, Civil Engineering, Daegu University) | Khil-Ha Lee Corresponding author