백두산은 역사시대에 다수의 분화 기록이 있으며, 2002년도에 불안정한 전조를 나타내었다. 지질조사 결과 백두산에서는 플리니안 분화로 인하여 강하화산재 발생 후 분연주의 붕괴로 화쇄류가 발생한 것이 인지되므로, 특정 분화구로부터 소규모 분화에 의한 화쇄류의 영향 범위에 대하여 시뮬레이션 하였다. 화산폭발지수(VEI) 3 이하의 분화가 발생하여 분연주의 붕괴에 의하여 화쇄류가 발생하면 칼데라 외륜산으로부터 백두산 사면을 따라 최대 7 km까지 영향을 미칠 것으로 해석되었으며, 칼데라 내의 분화구에 의한 분연주 발생 시 대부분이 칼데라 내부에 퇴적되거나, 흘러넘칠 경우에는 주로 북쪽 이도백하 상류 계곡에 두껍게 퇴적될 것으로 파악된다.

백두산은 정상부에 천지가 존재하는 잠재적인 활화산으로 최근 화산활동 분화와 관련된 화산이류 발생가능성에 대한 우려가 높아지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 백두산 정상부의 칼데라 호수 지점의 분화를 가정한 화산이류의 모델링을 수행하였다. LAHARZ를 적용한 본 연구는 다른 해상도의 수치지형모형을 구동모형의 매개변수를 변화시키며 분화로 야기된 다양한 상황의 화산이류 발생 영향을 검토하였다. 매개변수의 민감도 해석은 움푹 패인 곳(sink)을 정의하는 한계치와 수치지형모형의 해상도가 화산이류의 모델링 결과에 주는 영향이 제한적이라는 결과를 보여주었고, 하천격자의 도출을 위한 한계치와 수치모형의 해상도는 하천격자의 공간적 분포에 상대적으로 민감한 결과를 보여주었다. 또한 LAHARZ가 가지고 있는 문제가 흐름 발생 알고리즘 자체의 한계에 기인하는 것을 확인하였다. 한편, 상이한 수치지형 모형의 해상도가 화산이류의 최종 모델링결과에 미치는 영향은 제한적으로 나타났다.

최근 백두산의 재분화 문제가 하나의 중요한 지구과학적 문제로 부상하고 있다. 백두산과 같이 대규모 칼데라 호수를 갖고 있는 화산의 폭발은 단순히 화산분출뿐만 아니라 칼테라 호수에 저장된 물의 유출로 인해 큰 재해를 유발할 수 있어 연구가 필요하다. 대형 화산성 홍수는 모든 종류의 인공 구조물을 파괴할 수 있는 에너지를 가지고 있고, 유속이 100 km hr-1에 달하며, 도달거리가 수 백 km까지 이르기 때문에 치명적인 피해를 가져올 수 있다. 연구의 최종목표는 백두산의 지질과 지반 조건에서 분화 시 예상되는 화산성 홍수의 피해를 예측하는 것이다. 하나의 사전 연구로서 백두산 화산이 분출되면서 천지에 저장된 물이 방류될 경우를 가정한 유량곡선 시나리오에 근거하여 수치해석을 실시하였다. 각각의 시나리오 별(림 붕괴, 단순융기, 림 붕괴와 융기의 조합, 강우형성 등)로 시간의 함수로서 유량변화를 이끌어내기 위해 선행 연구를 바탕으로 백두산 천지 유출 모형을 전개하였다. 천지에서 마그마 융기와 림 붕괴가 동시에 발생하면 최고 유량이 25,000 m3s-1에 이르러 백두산 천지의 화산홍수가 주변 지역에 심각한 자연재해를 가져올 수 있는 것으로 보인다. 이 연구에서는 저수지의 물이 방류되는 순간유량곡선에 치중하였으며 천지 유량 방출 후 하류 하천 하도 추적은 다루지 않았다.

백두산 분화의 분출물은 북쪽으로 송화강, 동쪽과 서쪽으로 두만강과 압록강 하구에서 발견되고 있다. 즉 화쇄류, 화산이류, 화산성홍수와 같이 흐름에 수반된 화산물질의 영향범위는 천지를 중심으로 반경 400 km의 범위까지 영향을 미치는 것을 알 수 있다. 그러나 약 1,000년 전 분화 때와는 달리 천지칼데라호의 20억 톤보다 저수량이 큰 담수저장시설이 건설되어 화산분화 시 예상되는 유체의 흐름은 직간접적으로 인공적인 구조물의 영향을 받게 된다. 이 연구는 백두산 화산분화 시 예상되는 화쇄류, 화산이류, 화산성홍수의 수치해석 및 지형자료 분석을 통해 유체의 흐름방향을 산정하고 백두산 일원의 댐과 인공호수의 저수용량에 따른 화쇄류, 화산이류, 화산성홍수의 피해범위를 파악하였다. 분출 초기에 급경사를 따라 이동하는 화쇄류는 산지의 경사면을 따라 이동하여 평탄지까지 영향을 미치며, 천지호의 유출에 의한 화산이류는 주요 하천까지 도달할 수 있다. 화산성홍수의 경우 현존하는 인공적인 담수 저장시설물들로 인하여 천지칼데라호의 담수 유출에 의한 피해 범위는 과거에 비하여 매우 제한적인 범위에 영향을 미칠 것으로 판단된다.

This study is to examine how well the hydrologic model reproduces the dam collapse. To do this, A hydrologic model FLO-2D is being operated to reproduce dam collapse with rainfall data and surface data in a small dam. In order to examine the performance of the model, the simulation was compared and reviewed with the data collected through the field survey. The results show that it takes about 2 hours to reach 1 km downstream. Inundation areas are about 188,640 m2 by the simulation and the difference from the field investigation is about 6.1%. Ten representative points were selected from the areas where the simulation and the field survey did not match. The discrepancy is less than about 0.08 m and does not appear to be significant. This study will present basic information on disaster preparedness operation and planning to minimize damage caused by sudden collapse of agricultural soil dams in the future.

When an agricultural soil dam collapses, the extent of inundation and the rate of diffusion vary depending on where the collapse occurs in the dam body. In this study, a dam collapse scenario was established and a two-dimensional numerical model FLO-2D was used to closely examine the inundation pattern of the downstream residential area according to the dam collapse point. The results were presented as a flood risk map showing the changes and patterns of the extent of inundation spread. The flood level and the time to reach the maximum water level vary depending on the point of collapse, and the inundation of the downstream area proceeds rapidly in the order of the midpoint, left point, and right point collapse. In the left collapse point, the submergence appeared about 0.5 hour slower than the middle point, and the right collapse point appeared about 1 hour slower than the middle point. Since the relative damage pattern is different depending on the dam collapse point, insurance and disaster countermeasures will have to be established differently.

Soil water enters the atmosphere via evapotranspiration, where it transforms into atmospheric water vapor and plays important role in the surface-atmosphere energy exchange. Soil conditions have a direct influence on the effective rainfall, and initial soil moisture conditions are important for quantitatively evaluating the effective rainfall in a watershed. To examine the sensitivity of the initial saturation to hydrologic outflow, a two-dimensional distributed FLO-2D hydrologic model was applied to a small watershed. The initial saturation was set to 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7 and the obtained results were compared. The Green-ampt model was chosen to calculate the penetration loss. Depending on the initial soil moisture, the peak flow rate varied by up to 60%, and the total water volume in the watershed by approximately 40%.

This study presents meteorological data integrity to improve environmental quality assessment in Yongdam catchment. The study examines both extreme ranges of meteorological data measurements and data reliability which include maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, dew point temperature, radiation, heat flux. There were some outliers and missing data from the measurements. In addition, the latent heat flux and sensible heat flux data were not reasonable and evapotranspiration data did not match at some points. The accuracy and consistency of data stored in a database for the study were secured from the data integrity. Users need to take caution when using meteorological data from the Yongdam catchment in the preparation of water resources planning, environmental impact assessment, and natural hazards analysis.

The determination of soil parameters is important in predicting the simulated surface runoff using either a distributed or a lumped rainfall-runoff model. Soil characteristics can be collected using remote sensing techniques and represented as a digital map. There is no universal agreement with respect to the determination of a representative parameter from a gridded digital map. Two representative methods, i.e., arithmetic and predominant, are introduced and applied to both FLO-2D and HEC-HMS to improve the model’s accuracy. Both methods are implemented in the Yongdam catchment, and the results show that the former seems to be more accurate than the latter in the test site. This is attributed to the high conductivity of the dominant soil class, which is A type.

The determination of soil characteristics is important in the simulation of rainfall runoff using a distributed FLO-2D model in catchment analysis. Digital maps acquired using remote sensing techniques have been widely used in modern hydrology. However, the determination of a representative parameter with spatial scaling mismatch is difficult. In this investigation, the FLO-2D rainfall-runoff model is utilized in the Yongdam catchment to test sensitivity based on three different methods (mosaic, arithmetic, and predominant) that describe soil surface characteristics in real systems. The results show that the mosaic method is costly, but provides a reasonably realistic description and exhibits superior performance compared to other methods in terms of both the amount and time to peak flow.

Two main sources of data, meteorological data and land surface characteristics, are essential to effectively run a distributed rainfall-runoff model. The specification and averaging of the land surface characteristics in a suitable way is crucial to obtaining accurate runoff output. Recent advances in remote sensing techniques are often being used to derive better representations of these land surface characteristics. Due to the mismatch in scale between digital land cover maps and numerical grid sizes, issues related to upscaling or downscaling occur regularly. A specific method is typically selected to average and represent the land surface characteristics. This paper examines the amount of flooding by applying the FLO-2D routing model, where vegetation heterogeneity is manipulated using the Manning’s roughness coefficient. Three different upscaling methods, arithmetic, dominant, and aggregation, were tested. To investigate further, the rainfall-runoff model with FLO-2D was facilitated in Yongdam catchment and heavy rainfall events during wet season were selected. The results show aggregation method provides better results, in terms of the amount of peak flow and the relative time taken to achieve it. These rwsults suggest that the aggregation method, which is a reasonably realistic description of area-averaged vegetation nature and characteristics, is more likely to occur in reality.

A Numerical modeling approach is usually applied to reproduce the physical phenomena of a fill dam-break. The accuracy of the dam-break model depends on the physical structure that defines input variables such as the storage volume, breach formation and progress, and the parameters of the model, which are subjective as they are prescribed by users. In this study, a sensitivity analysis was performed for the nonlinear breach progression curve that was already developed, which includes four parameters. The study focuses on the two of the parameters which control the breach forming time and peak discharge. The model is coupled with a two-dimensional flood simulation model (FLO-2D) to examine flood coverage and depth. It is generally observed that the parameter β controls only the breach forming time, the parameter γ is particularly sensitive to the peak flow.

The real-time monitoring of surface vegetation is essential for the management of droughts, vegetation growth, and water resources. The availability of land cover maps based on remotely collected data makes the monitoring of surface vegetation easier. The vegetation index in an area is likely to be proportional to meteorological elements there such as air temperature and precipitation. This study investigated relationship between vegetation index based on Moderate Resolution Image Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and ground-measured meteorological elements at the Yongdam catchment station. To do this, 16-day averaged data were used. It was found that the vegetation index is well correlated to air temperature but poorly correlated to precipitation. The study provides some intuition and guidelines for the study of the droughts and ecologies in the future.

The specification of surface vegetation is essential for simulating actual evapotranspiration of water resources. The availability of land cover maps based on remotely collected data makes the specification of surface vegetation easier. The spatial resolution of hydrologic models rarely matches the spatial scales of the vegetation data needed, and remotely collected vegetation data often are upscaled up to conform to the hydrologic model scale. In this study, the effects of the grid scale of of surface vegetation on the results of actual evapotranspiration were examined. The results show that the coarser resolution causes larger error in relative terms and that a more realistic description of area-averaged vegetation nature and characteristics needs to be considered when calculating actual evapotranspiration.

Aquatic plants serve the crucial function of helping to balance water reservoir ecosystem, as they filter and remove major minerals required for algal growth such as nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrates. Aquatic plants provide food, shade, and protection for the aquatic biome in and around the reservoir. Thus, it is important to accurately determine the existence and areal extent of the aquatic plants. In the present study drone-based facilities were used for this purpose. In the Muncheon water reservoir, Gyeongbuk, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Surface Algal Bloom Index (SABI) were used to determine the existence status of the aquatic plants. The data so obtained exhibited reasonable accuracy; drone-based facilities can be used in future to identify the areal extent of aquatic plants.

Drought is a reoccurring worldwide natural hazard that affects not only food production but also economics, health, and infrastructure. Drought monitoring is usually performed with precipitation-based indices without consideration of the actual state and amount of the land surface properties. A drought index based on the actual evapotranspiration can overcome these shortcomings. The severity of a drought can be quantified by making a spatial map. The procedure for estimating actual evapotranspiration is costly and complicated, and requires land surface information. The possibility of utilizing drone-driven remotely sensed data for actual evapotranspiration estimation was analyzed in this study. A drone collected data was used to calculate the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI). The spatial resolution was 10 m with a grid of 404 x 395. The collected data were applied and parameterized to an actual evapotranspiration estimation. The result shows that drone-based data is useful for estimating actual evapotranspiration and the corresponding drought indices.

To project the effects of climate-induced change on aquatic environments, it is necessary to determine the thermal constraints affecting different fish species and to acquire time series of the current and projected water temperature (WT). Assuming that a nonlinear regression between the WT at individual stations and the ambient air temperature (AT) at nearby weather stations could represent the best relationship of air-water temperature, This study estimates future WT using a general circulation model (GCM). In addition, assuming that the grid-averaged observations of AT correspond to the AT output from GCM simulation, this study constructed a regression curve between the observations of the local WT and the concurrent GCM-simulated surface AT. Because of its low spatial resolution, downscaling is unavoidable. The projected WT under global warming scenario A2 (B2) shows an increase of about 1.6 (0.9 ) for the period 2080-2100. The maximum/minimum WT shows an amount of change similar to that of the mean values. This study will provide guidelines for decision-makers and engineers in climate-induced river environment and ecosystem management.

본 연구에서는 백두산 화산 분화 시 발생할 수 있는 화산 이류의 피해 범위에 연구 및 적용 방법을 검토하였다. 일반적으로 화산이 폭발한 경우 발생할 수 있는 다양한 형태의 화산 피해 중 화산 이류는 주로 폭발 자체에 의해 물과 마그마가 함께 흘러내리는 1차 화산이류(Eruption Induced Lahars)와 화산 폭발 이후의 강우에 의한 2차 화산이류(Rain-Triggered Lahars)로 나눌 수 있다. 이러한 화산 이류에 의한 피해는 20세기 이후 전지구적으로 30,000명의 사망자를 발생시키는 위험한 화산 부산물로써 이에 대한 대책이 필요하다. 하지만, 일반적인 토석류에 의한 재난과 마찬가지로 화산 이류에 의한 재해를 방지 하는 것을 제한적이므로, 이를 미리 예측하여 화산 폭발이나 폭발 후 집중 강우 발생 시의 대피 등을 통해 피해규모를 줄이는 것이 최선이다. 화산이류의 피해 범위에 대한 예측을 하기 위해서는 화산 이류의 유동에 대한 이해가 필요한데, 미국 지리조사국에서 개발한 화산 이류 모의 소프트웨어인 LAHARZ를 이용하여 GIS데이터와 경험식을 통한 예측이 일반적이다. 본 연구에서는 백두산을 대상으로 발생 가능한 다양한 시나리오를 고려하여 화산 이류의 침수면적에 대한 모의를 수행하고 이러한 침수 면적을 바탕으로 침수 지역의 주제도와의 병합을 통해 실질적인 피해 범위에 대한 연구를 수행하였다.

Disasters like mountain landslides and collapse in cutting areas claim many a life and cause economic losses, involving much effort and expenses for their recovery. This study has surveyed and analyzed incident of disasters that had occurred on the sloping sides in Korea for the past 13 years in an effort to relieve damage caused by disasters on the sloping sides. The analysis confirms that while the major cause of disasters on the sloping side was storms in the past, frequency of disasters on sloping sides caused by local downpour is steadily on the rise. In addition, while disasters were concentrated in Gangwon Province, a mountainous region of the country, frequency of disasters occurring on the sloping sides is steadily increasing recently on the sloping sides in downtown areas in Seoul, Gyeonggi-do and so forth, attributing a large percentage of disasters to sloping sides. Data surveyed and analyzed in this study are thought to be applicable as basic data for the establishment of effective measures for the prevention of disasters occurring on the sloping sides in the days to come.