This paper proposed data driven techniques to forecast the time point of water management of the water reservoir without measuring manganese concentration with the empirical data as Juam Dam of years of 2015 and 2016. When the manganese concentration near the surface of water goes over the criteria of 0.3mg/l, the water management should be taken. But, it is economically inefficient to measure manganese concentration frequently and regularly. The water turnover by the difference of water temperature make manganese on the floor of water reservoir rise up to surface and increase the manganese concentration near the surface. Manganese concentration and water temperature from the surface to depth of 20m by 5m have been time plotted and exploratory analyzed to show that the water turnover could be used instead of measuring manganese concentration to know the time point of water management. Two models for forecasting the time point of water turnover were proposed and compared as follow: The regression model of CR20, the consistency ratio of water temperature, between the surface and the depth of 20m on the lagged variables of CR20 and the first lag variable of max temperature. And, the Box-Jenkins model of CR20 as ARIMA (2, 1, 2).

1. 서 론
 2. 데이터 및 연구방법
  2.1 데이터 설명
  2.2 연구방법
 3. 실증분석 결과
  3.1 망간농도 분석
  3.2 수심별 수온 시계열분석
  3.3 기상상황과 수온차이 상관분석
  3.4 전도현상 예측모형
 4. 결 론
 Acknowledgement
 References

• Sehyug Kwon(Department of Statistics, Hannam University, 한남대학교 통계학과) | 권세혁 Corresponding Author