Recently, the occurrences of droughts have been increased because of global warming and climate change. Water resources that mostly rely on groundwater are particularly vulnerable to the impact of precipitation variation, one of the major elements of climate change, are very sensitive to changes in the seasonal distribution as well as the average annual change in the viewpoint of agricultural activity. In this study, the status of drought for the present and future on Jeju Island which entirely rely on groundwater using SPI and PDSI were analyzed considering regional distribution of crops in terms of land use and fluctuation of water demand. The results showed that the precipitation distribution in Jeju Island is changed in intensity as well as seasonal variation of extreme events and the amount increase of precipitation during the dry season in the spring and fall indicated that agricultural water demand and supply policies would be considered by regional characteristics, especially the western region with largest market garden crops. Regarding the simulated future drought, the drought would be mitigated in the SPI method because of considering total rainfall only excluding intensity variation, while more intensified in the PDSI because it considers the evapotranspiration as well as rainfall as time passed. Moreover, the drought in the northern and western regions is getting worse than in the southern region so that the establishment of regional customized policies for water supply in Jeju Island is needed.

Abstract
 1. 서 론
 2. 연구자료 및 방법
  2.1. 대상 기상대 선정 및 미래 기상자료 생성
  2.2. 가뭄평가
 3. 결과 및 고찰
  3.1. 기온 및 강수량 경향 분석
  3.2. 가뭄 경향 분석 및 농업용수에의 영향 고찰
 4. 결 론
 참 고 문 헌

• 송성호(한국농어촌공사 농어촌연구원) | Sung-Ho Song (Rural Research Instititute, KRC)
• 유승환(퍼듀대학교 농업및생물공학과) | Seung-Hwan Yoo (Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering)
• 배승종(서울대학교 그린바이오과학기술연구원) | Seung-Jong Bae (Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University) Corresponding author