Unit load factor, which is used for the quantification of non-point pollution in watersheds, has the limitation that it does not reflect spatial characteristics of soil, topography and temporal change due to the interannual or seasonal variability of precipitation. Therefore, we developed the method to estimate a watershed-scale non-point pollutant load using seasonal forecast data that forecast changes of precipitation up to 6 months from present time for watershed-scale water quality management. To establish a preemptive countermeasure against non-point pollution sources, it is possible to consider the unstructured management plan which is possible over several months timescale. Notably, it is possible to apply various management methods such as control of sowing and irrigation timing, control of irrigation through water management, and control of fertilizer through fertilization management. In this study, APEX-Paddy model, which can consider the farming method in field scale, was applied to evaluate the applicability of seasonal forecast data. It was confirmed that the rainfall amount during the growing season is an essential factor in the non-point pollution pollutant load. The APEX-Paddy model for quantifying non-point pollution according to various farming methods in paddy fields simulated similarly the annual variation tendency of TN and TP pollutant loads in rice paddies but showed a tendency to underestimate load quantitatively.

ABSTRACT
 I. 서 론
 II. 재료 및 방법
  1. 대상 유역 및 모니터링 사이트
  2. 계절예측 상세화 자료 생산 기법 및 예측성 평가
  3. APEX-Paddy 모형을 이용한 농업비점오염 부하량 정량화 모델링
 III. 결과 및 고찰
  1. 기후 변동에 따른 비점오염 부하량 변동 특성 분석
  2. 기후예측 예측성 평가
  3. 필지규모 농업비점오염 부하량 정량화
 IV. 요약 및 결론
 References

• 조재필(APEC 기후센터 기후사업본부) | Cho Jaepil (Climate Services and Research Department, APEC Climate Center)
• 최순군(국립농업과학원 농업환경부) | Cho, Soon-Kun (Department of Agricultural Environment, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences)
• 황세운(경상대학교 애그로시스템공학부, 농업생명과학연구원) | Hwang Syewoon (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Institute of Agriculture and Life Science, Gyeongsang National University)
• 박지훈(APEC 기후센터 기후사업본부) | Park Jihoon (Climate Services and Research Department, APEC Climate Center) Corresponding author