The focus of analysis is effect on Non-electrical Machinery and Equipment of Macroeconomic variables through long-term and short-term periods. Also, this paper is related with implication on steady growth possibility of Non-electrical Machinery and Equipment. The period of variables is from 1985 to April in 2005. In case of not-available data is treated as missing figures. As spatial scope, these data are Non-electrical Machinery and Equipment on the basis of KSIC. In case of items, it composes MTI 1&3 digit of Korea International Trade Association (KITA), on the basis of HSK & classification of Korea Machinery industries. According to Granger causality test, yield of Cooperate Bond and export amount of Machinery have a meaning at statistical Confidence level of 10%. In case of index of the unit cost of export and export amount of Machinery, they have an interactive Granger cause. In yen dollar exchange rate and export amount of Machinery, former variable gives an unilateral Granger cause to latter that.

ABSTRACT
 I. 서론
 II. 기계산업의 예측 모형의 구조 및 특성
  1. 기계산업의 예측모형의 개요 및 특징
 III. 기계산업의 예측 모형의 추정 및 결과
  1. 영향 및 파급효과 분석 계수 및 추정의 결과
 IV. 기계산업의 예측 모형의 활용
  1. 기계산업에 대한 영향 및 파급효과 분석에의 적용
  2. 기타의 기계산업 예측에의 응용
 V. 요약 및 결론
 부록
 참고문헌

• 김종권 | Jong kwon Kim